Chapter 18 Rotter and Mischel: Cognitive Social Learning Theory 535traits were solely responsible for behavior, then a person would always respond
in a consistent and characteristic fashion, even to different events. Because
neither of these conditions is valid, something other than the environment or
personal traits must shape behavior. Rotter’s social learning theory hypothe-
sizes that the interaction between person and environment is a crucial factor in
shaping behavior.
The psychological situation is “a complex set of interacting cues acting
upon an individual for any specific time period” (Rotter, 1982, p. 318). People
do not behave in a vacuum; instead, they respond to cues within their perceived
environment. These cues serve to determine for them certain expectancies for
behavior-reinforcement sequences as well as for reinforcement-reinforcement
sequences. The time period for the cues may vary from momentary to lengthy;
thus, the psychological situation is not limited by time. One’s marital situation,
for example, may be relatively constant over a long period of time, whereas the
psychological situation faced by a driver’s spinning out of control on an icy road
may be extremely short. The psychological situation must be considered, along
with expectancies and reinforcement value, in determining the probability of a
given response.
Basic Prediction Formula
As a hypothetical means of predicting specific behaviors, Rotter proposed a basic
formula that includes all four variables of prediction. The formula represents an
idealistic rather than a practical means of prediction, and no precise values can be
plugged into it. Consider the case of La Juan, an academically gifted college stu-
dent who is listening to a dull and lengthy lecture by one of her professors. To the
internal cues of boredom and the external cues of seeing slumbering classmates,
what is the likelihood that La Juan will respond by resting her head on the desk
in an attempt to sleep? The psychological situation alone is not responsible for her
behavior, but it interacts with her expectancy for reinforcement plus the reinforce-
ment value of sleep in that particular situation. La Juan’s behavior potential can
be estimated by Rotter’s (1982, p. 302) basic formula for the prediction of goal-
directed behavior:
BPx 1 ,s 1 ,ra = f(Ex 1 ,ra,s 1 + RVa,s 1 )
This formula is read: The potential for behavior x to occur in situation 1 in relation
to reinforcement a is a function of the expectancy that behavior x will be followed
by reinforcement a in situation 1 and the value of reinforcement a in situation 1.
Applied to our example, the formula suggests that the likelihood (behavior
potential, or BP) that La Juan will rest her head on her desk (behavior x) in a dull
and boring class with other students slumbering (the psychological situation, or s 1 )
with the goal of sleep (reinforcement, or ra) is a function of her expectation that
such behavior (Ex) will be followed by sleep (ra) in this particular classroom situ-
ation (s 1 ), plus a measure of how highly she desires to sleep (reinforcement value,
or RVa) in this specific situation (s). Because precise measurement of each of these
variables may be beyond the scientific study of human behavior, Rotter proposed
a strategy for predicting general behaviors.