536 Part VI Learning-Cognitive Theories
Predicting General Behaviors
To predict general behaviors, we look at David, who has worked for 18 years in
Hoffman’s Hardware Store. David has been informed that, because of a business
decline, Mr. Hoffman must cut his workforce and that David may lose his job. How can
we predict David’s subsequent behavior? Will he beg Mr. Hoffman to let him remain
with the company? Will he strike out in violence against the store or Mr. Hoffman?
Will he displace his anger and act aggressively toward his wife or children? Will he
begin drinking heavily and become apathetic toward searching for a new job? Will
he immediately and constructively begin looking for another position?Generalized Expectancies
Because most of David’s possible behaviors are new to him, how can we predict
what he will do? At this point, the concepts of generalization and generalized
expectancy enter into Rotter’s theory. If, in the past, David has generally been
rewarded for behaviors that have increased his social status, then only a slight
probability exists that he will beg Mr. Hoffman for a job, because such actions are
contrary to increased social status. On the other hand, if his previous attempts at
responsible and independent behaviors have generally been reinforced and if he
has the freedom of movement—that is, the opportunity to apply for another job —
then, assuming he needs work, a high probability exists that he will apply for
another job or otherwise behave independently. This prediction, though not as
specific as the one predicting the college student’s likelihood of sleeping in a bor-
ing classroom, is nevertheless more useful in situations where rigorous control of
pertinent variables is not possible. Predicting David’s reaction to the probable loss
of a job is a matter of knowing how he views the options available to him and
also the status of his present needs.Needs
Rotter (1982) defined needs as any behavior or set of behaviors that people see as
moving them in the direction of a goal. Needs are not states of deprivation or
arousal but indicators of the direction of behavior. The difference between needs
and goals is semantic only. When focus is on the environment, Rotter speaks of
goals; when it is on the person, he talks of needs.
The concept of needs allows for more generalized predictions than permitted
by the four specific variables that comprise the basic prediction formula. Ordinarily,
personality theory deals with broad predictions of human behavior. For example,
a person with strong needs for dominance will usually try to gain the power posi-
tion in most interpersonal relationships as well as in a variety of other situations.
In specific situations, however, a dominant person may behave in a nondominant
or even submissive fashion. The basic prediction formula permits specific predic-
tions, with the assumption, of course, that all relevant information is at hand. It is
the more appropriate formula for controlled laboratory experiments but is inade-
quate in predicting everyday behaviors. For this reason, Rotter introduced the con-
cept of needs and their accompanying general prediction formula.