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Five, if these setbacks and policy weaknesses were insufficient, the US
modified its former position and reached a political accommodation with
Iran over the nuclear controversy. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action (JCPOA) was concluded between the Islamic Republic and P5+1
countries (permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany)
in July 2015 (US Department of State 2015 ) overriding the concerns of
Saudi Arabia as well as Israel. Iran’s ambitions and its direct involvement
in many regional tensions and conflicts such as Iraq, Syria, Lebanon,
Bahrain and Yemen had unnerved the Kingdom (Cambanis 2015 ;
Fathollah-Nejad 2017 ; AFP 2017 ). Costly wars in Iraq and Afghanistan,
prolonged domestic economic slowdown, war fatigue and lack of wide-
spread support for overseas campaigns appeared to have prevented the
Obama administration from pursuing a robust, if not a confrontationist
policy, over the nuclear controversy. Hence, it settled for a diplomatic
solution to close the decade-old nuclear file.
Therefore, a host of regional developments, especially in the Persian
Gulf region have been taking place without an American leadership role.
On the contrary, many policies pursued by the Obama administration have
been resented by the friends and foes alike. The weak and ineffective
American leadership has resulted in Russia’s ascendance as a pivot to any
possible resolution of the Syrian civil war and the emergence of Iranian
hegemony in the Gulf. None of the major conflicts in the region, espe-
cially in Iraq, Syria and Yemen could be resolved without the Iranian
cooperation or active involvement. Thus, while no other power or constel-
lation of powers are in a position to replace the US, the politico- diplomatic
influence of Washington in the Gulf has been dwindling, thereby encour-
aging countries like Iran while causing anxieties among traditional allies
like Saudi Arabia.
The shale oil and fracking has transformed the international oil scene
(Ramady and Mahdi 2015 ) which was already under pressure due to the
weak economic growth in the OECD countries since 2008. The US is
projecting itself as a net energy exporter thereby undermining the decade-
old energy dynamics in the US-Saudi relations (Sergie 2014 ; Clemente
2017 ). The economic situation has also weakened the traditional American
support for European energy security despite the latter being a “free rider”
(Goldberg 2016 ).
Interestingly, the dwindling American influence in the Gulf region
comes at a time when there is increasing political convergence and under-
standing between New Delhi and Washington. Though alliance would be
a misnomer, the growing strategic convergence and engagements between
P. R. KUMARASWAMY AND MD. M. QUAMAR