20 | New Scientist | 1 February 2020
THE slogan may be “get Brexit
done”, but the reality is that big
questions remain unanswered
over what will happen once the
UK leaves the European Union
on 31 January.
The official departure date
starts the clock on an 11-month
transition period during which
the UK must follow most of the
EU’s laws while negotiating a
future trade deal. If there is no
agreement by the end of the year,
there could be big consequences
for science, energy and more.
There is certainly a lot to get
through, and little time. Noises
from both sides suggest they
are planning to leave four to
six months for the remaining
27 EU member states to ratify
the agreement. That means
negotiations need to be completed
as early as July for certain issues.CLIMATE CHANGE
The UK’s current commitment
under the Paris climate agreement
was jointly submitted with the
EU. That means a new, UK-only
plan for carbon cuts will need to
be sent to the United Nations –
something sources say could
happen within weeks.
Brexit will make it harder for
the EU to meet its 2030 carbon
targets because the UK has
performed better than many of
its European peers on emissions
cuts in recent years. Its exit will
reduce average EU efforts.
Until the year’s end, the UK will
remain part of the EU’s flagship
climate policy, the Emissions
Trading System (ETS), in which
11,000 power stations and
industrial facilities trade carbon
permits that aim to drive down
emissions by incentivising
greener options.
The most likely outcome is that
the UK quits the ETS at the end ofthe year. It will then impose either a
carbon tax or its own carbon
market. In the longer term, a UK
market may link up to the EU one.
The UK will be cut off from
EU funds that have supported
green energy projects, including
the European Investment Bank.
EU regional development funds
have also backed UK green
projects, such as a geothermal
scheme in Cornwall. Without UK
funding to fill the gap – something
the government has hinted may
come in March in its annual
budget – low-carbon investment
could suffer, says Shane
Tomlinson at E3G, a UK-based
environmental think tank.FISHING
When politicians led a flotilla
of boats down the river Thames
ahead of the 2016 EU referendum,
pro-leave campaigners promised
the UK’s fishing industry a
brighter future. The reality is less
straightforward, and will hingeoutcome in negotiations is that,
although the UK will have “taken
back control” of its waters, EU
boats will still be allowed in, and
vice versa. “I would imagine there
would be some sort of reciprocal
access,” says Ali Plummer at
environmental charity the RSPB.
The UK will also be consulted at
the annual bun fight in December
at which fishing quotas dictating
how much can be caught in 2021
will be divvied up among EU
states. The UK government is
expected to lay a fisheries bill
in Parliament by mid-February,
which will give a clearer sign of
what direction it will take.ENVIRONMENT
UK chancellor Sajid Javid
recently said firms shouldn’t
expect alignment with EU
regulations following the
transition period, which could
have a big environmental effect.
For example, it could attract
more firms that make fossil
fuel-powered cars to the UK,
while electric vehicles are built
elsewhere. The European
Commission also fears some of
the exemptions the EU granted
to the UK’s dirtiest power stations
could be extended for longer by
the UK if it chooses to diverge.
The UK government has been
at pains to rule out any backsliding
on environmental legislation.
But although the UK is bringing
forward an environment bill
that will transpose EU legislation
on issues such as water and air
quality into UK law, it will not
carry over many of the green
principles in EU legislation, such
as the precautionary principle
and polluter pays principle.The UK is leaving the
EU, but the extent of the
divide remains to be seenPoliticsNews Insight
Brexit is only beginning
The UK is finally set to leave the European Union, but big questions
on science, health and the environment remain, says Adam Vaughanon how the broader EU-UK trade
negotiations play out.
A new fishing agreement is one
of the first post-Brexit deadlines
that will arrive this year, as the
UK and EU have set a date of 1 July
for a deal. Any agreement will
take effect from next year, when
the UK leaves the EU’s CommonFisheries Policy and becomes an
“independent coastal state”. The
deal will dictate what, where and
how vessels from the UK and the
27 EU states can fish.
The EU will be seeking
continued access to UK waters,
which is no surprise given that
Spain has the largest fishing
fleet in Europe and France the
third biggest – the UK is second.
Observers think the most likelyCHRISSTRICKL
AND/GET
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IMAGES4-6
Number of months that may be set
aside to ratify a new UK-EU deal