MARKETS, AMPHORA TRADE AND WINE INDUSTRY 245
to particular years but is a consistent trend, it should indicate either the growth
or the reduction of wine production (Figure 10.4).^13 As in the case of the
charts of sales allocation, instead of showing the indices for each year, this trend
line is based on data grouped in a series of timeframes in order to show only
the general trend, and to reduce the discrepancies resulting from under- and
over-represented years and chronological problems.^14 Still, neither the method
nor the chronology is precise enough to take into account detailed changes
in the line. For example, the small peak in the 230s is most probably due to a
chronological problem with the six eponyms of the so-called ivy-leaf group,
which in my opinion should be dated some 10–15 years earlier.
Despite all these difficulties, the general trends seen on the chart should bevalid: a relatively low volume of production during the first three quarters
of the fourth century, a consistent growth in the last third, a peak during the
last decade of the fourth and the first quarter of the third century, followed
by decline, particularly noticeable after the middle of the third century. If we
combine this information with that from the sales allocation charts, it turns
out that the low levels of production correspond to a dominance in sales to
distant markets, a growth in production corresponds to a diversification of and
balance in the sales between long- and short-distance markets, and a decline in
production corresponds to a growing share of the core-zone markets.
While it is impossible to quantify production in absolute figures, it is pos-sible to conclude that the Thasian wine/amphora industry experienced sus-
tained growth for about a half century. If the figures are correct, during this
period the labor engaged in amphora production roughly tripled, which sug-
gests a similar or larger growth in the aggregate output of containers.^15 Such
growth indicates a period of high demand and stable foreign markets, which
stimulated investment in expansion of the vineyards, new wine-making facili-
ties, and amphora workshops.
An Export-Oriented Industry
Many modern studies view amphora exports as a way of distributing surplus
production. The very concept of a surplus (i.e., produce in excess) implies
producers who aim at satisfying their own needs, and release products for sale
only when the crop exceeds what is needed for their own consumption. Such
a strategy would have been the rational choice for many small-scale produc-
ers,^16 but it cannot be applied to amphora trade in Ancient Greece in general.
Market-oriented industries did exist, and some of them were clearly oriented
toward distant markets. The case of Thasos is a good, although certainly not
a unique example. One may reasonably argue that Hellenistic Rhodes and
Cnidos eventually would show an even higher priority put on their amphora