13 World War II in Asia–Pacific, II
Strategy and warfare
Introduction: over the cliff
There was much diplomatic activity in the second half of 1941 between Japan and its
opponents, primarily the United States. In addition, the internal Japanese debate was
certainly active virtually all the way to Pearl Harbor. But really the die was cast in a key
policy document of 6 September 1941, ‘Guidelines for implementing national policies’,
which was formally adopted by national leaders in the presence of the Emperor. In the
judgement of one Japanese historian, ‘That document may be regarded as a virtual
declaration of war by Japan. It clearly implied that war would come unless a peaceful
settlement could be worked out with the United States’ (Iriye, 1987: 160). The ‘guide-
lines’ document said that the Americans, British and Dutch would have to halt their
aid to China, eschew establishing military facilities in Thailand, the Dutch East Indies
(modern Indonesia), China itself or the Far Eastern provinces of the Soviet Union, and
restore normal cooperative trading relations with Japan. In return, Japan would promise
to refrain from further military expansion in Asia, and would withdraw its forces from
Indo-China ‘upon the establishment of a just peace in Asia’. In other words, Japan insisted
upon holding on to its ill-gotten gains and was offering only a promise of good behaviour
in the future. General Tojo Hideki took over as Prime Minister on 17 October, in place of
the rather more flexible, not to say weak and inadequate, Konoye Funimaro. As a result,
the prospects for a last-minute shift in Japanese policy towards an offer that might just be
on the outer edge of negotiability moved from exceedingly low to zero. Japan would not
abandon its China policy, and the United States would not acquiesce in that policy.
Japanese strategy
Unlike the quasi-religious vision that inspired Adolf Hitler’s decidedly open-ended policy
goals for expansion, Japan had a fairly precise notion both of what it wanted to achieve
and of how it could accomplish it. In July–August 1941, despite the temptation to jump