The Economist USA 03.21.2020

TheEconomistMarch 21st 2020 41

1

I

n the corner of a restaurant in Ne-

kemte, a town in western Ethiopia, Fi-

saha Aberra unfolds a piece of paper on

which he has scrawled the names of 11 men

he says were shot by soldiers last year. After

this came mass arrests. Fisaha and two sib-

lings fled their home in Guliso to Nekemte,

leaving one brother behind who was arrest-

ed last month, for the second time in a year,

and beaten so hard he cannot walk.

Arrests and summary executions have

become commonplace in the far-flung

reaches of Oromia, Ethiopia’s largest re-

gion. The Ethiopian security forces are

waging war on armed Oromo separatists.

They are also treating civilians brutally.

Accounts by witnesses suggest there is in-

discriminate repression of local dissent in

a country supposedly on the path from

one-party rule towards democracy.

This was not what Ethiopians expected

from Abiy Ahmed, who became prime min-

ister in 2018. He was a young reformer from

Oromia. He promised democracy for all

and redress for what Oromos claim is cen-

turies of political and economic marginal-

isation. Abiy freed thousands of political

prisoners and welcomed rebel groups back

from exile to contest elections, now sched-

uled for August.

Abiy made peace with neighbouring Er-

itrea, for which he won the Nobel Peace

Prize, as well as with rebel groups includ-

ing the Oromo Liberation Front (olf),

which is now an opposition party. The

group’s armed wing, the Oromo Liberation

Army (ola), agreed to put down its guns; in

return its soldiers were to join Oromia’s po-

lice. Many hoped to see the end of an insur-

gency that began almost 50 years ago.

But the social fractures that lifted Abiy

to high office continue to divide Ethiopia.

Years of unrest in Oromo areas have weak-

ened local government and left a security

vacuum. In Wollega (to the west) and Guji

(in the south) returning rebels stepped into

the breach, sometimes working with the

police to enforce order. But they soon be-

gan accusing the government of betraying

the Oromo cause and reneging on prom-

ises to give them jobs in the police. The

government, in turn, accused the olaof

keeping its weapons. The details of the

peace deal were never disclosed, making it

easier for both sides to accuse the other of

failing to honour it.

By the end of 2018 the rebels had re-

turned to the forests and were murdering

officials and attacking army convoys. In

2019 the air force was reportedly bombing

olatraining camps. After a third peace deal

flopped in 2019 the olfformally split from

its armed wing (though they are thought to

keep covert lines of communication). The

government, in effect, declared a state of

emergency in Wollega and Guji, with the

army in charge of security. By the start of

2020 fighting in Guji had forced some

80,000 people from their homes.

Separatism in Ethiopia

Abiy’s war

NEKEMTE

A security crackdown threatens the country’s fragile transition to democracy

SOMALIA

SOUTH

SUDAN

ETHIOPIA

UGANDA KENYA

SUDAN

DJIBOUTI

ERITREA

Red

Sea

AddisAbaba

Nekemte

Guliso

Guji

Wollega

300 km

Oromia

Middle East & Africa

42 HIVandthedisabled

43 Crocodile-huntinginCongo

43 Prayerina pandemic

44 Bibi and the virus

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