Arctic Geopolitical Configuration
117Three internally homogeneous clusters are observed. Members of each
group are the most similar provinces according to a given configuration of
attributes. Their co-participation within a group means they constitute a
zone of certain structural consensus. The first such zone might be labeled
as “North America to Norway” as it consists of 13 provinces (11 in 2000)
belonging to Canada, the United States, Greenland and Norway. Norway
is more similar to Canada and the United States than to other Northern
European countries. Similarly, despite its judicial belonging to the
European sub-continent, Greenland is part of this cluster. These provinces
account for the greatest share of the region’s indigenous population,
generate more than half of gross agricultural and industrial product, and
are the most advanced in terms of regional economic and military
integration.
The second zone might be called “Northern Europe,” as it includes 5
provinces (7 in 2000) in Finland and Sweden. In addition to common
geographic attributes, members of this cluster also experience the highest
share of services in gross regional product and a moderate extent of
regional institutionalized integration. The last zone is called “Russia” as it
unites all Arctic provinces belonging to the Russian Federation. These
areas account for almost half of the region’s territory, population, and
military installations; they share the nuclear state status; they generate
approximately one fourth of gross regional product; however, they are the
least regionally integrated provinces. This grouping therefore confirms the
idea of Russia’s “isolated” status, which has been raised in literature.^65 At
the same time, there exist three buffer areas between the zones of
consensus: the “North America to Norway–Russia” buffer, consisting of
the Alaskan and Chukchi provinces; the “Russia-Northern Europe” buffer,
consisting of Murmansk, Karelia, Kainuu, Northern Ostrobothnia, and
Lapland provinces; and the “Northern Europe–North America to Norway”
buffer, consisting of Lapland, Norrbotten and Vasterbotten, Finnmark,
Tromso, and Nordland provinces (fig. 7-1: I, II, and III, respectively). We
now turn to a qualitative assessment of the geographic components of the
Arctic provinces’ conflict potential, in order to understand which buffer
area is the most prone to intraregional conflict.
Geography and Intraregional Conflict: The Arctic Case
In order to reveal the cause of unstable group membership of the four
cases colored in black on the map above (Yamal-Nenets, Sakha/Yakutia,
(^65) See Knell (2008).