Chapter Seven
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Iceland, and the Faroe Islands) we start with clustering geopolitical
variables without geographic ones. The groups are completely stable
throughout the studied period.^66 Consequently, the geographic vector of
regional development is behind the Arctic provinces’ membership
instability. Three out of five geographic variables in the dataset are fixed
at constant values (total area, area of EEZ, area of National sector) hence
the remaining two variables–the average temperatures in January and in
July–cause the observed instability. According to Hsiang, Burke, and
Miguel, the change in temperature increases the probability of Arctic
intraregional conflict:
[...] When climate variations occur, they can have substantial effects on
the incidence of conflict across a variety of contexts. The median effect of
a 1ı change in climate variables generates a 14% change in the risk of
intergroup conflict [...] If future populations respond similarly to past
populations, then anthropogenic climate change has the potential to
substantially increase conflict around the world, relative to a world without
climate change.^67Six provinces with a temperature variation of at least 2°C (Quebec,
Khanty-Mansii, Komi, Krasnoyarsk, Murmansk, Norrbotten) are thus the
most probable candidates to be involved in interstate conflict. Among
these cases, Quebec, Khanty-Mansii, Komi, and Krasnoyarsk hold central
positions within their own groups. The remaining two cases are different.
Norrbotten province belongs to the “Northern Europe–North America to
Norway” buffer area, while the Murmansk case is even more
sophisticated, as the province faces members of two remaining
geopolitical groups, “Northern Europe” and “North America to Norway”
through participation in both the “North America to Norway–Russia” and
the “Russia-Northern Europe” buffer areas. In terms of intraregional
conflict, a distinction should be made between the Norrbotten and
Murmansk cases. While Norrbotten is part of an advanced network of
regional cooperation that unites Norway with Swedish and Finnish
provinces through the European Free Trade Area and the World Trade
Organization, Murmansk province is an area where an “isolated” Russia
faces the European Union with the Partnership and Cooperation
Agreement as the deepest form of integration.^68 In terms of probability of
(^66) Screenshots of results are available on request.
(^67) Hsiang et al., “Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict”, 12.
(^68) Even though, since 2012, Russia is part of WTO, it cannot be now considered as
a full active member of the organization, as the transition period of approximately
three years applies to the process of Russia’s market liberalization – Ɇɨɝɢɥɨ,