Chapter Seven
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accounts for 14.5 percent of total gross domestic product), 26 provinces
belonging to Canada, Russia, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark and
Iceland are traders (the share of foreign trade accounts for a minimum of
30 percent of their total gross domestic product).
While Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden share
the same values of these parameters (Democracy, Peacefulness, Openness),
Russia’s set of parameter results is unique (Anocracy, Militarism,
Openness) as well as results of the United States (Democracy, Militarism,
Autarky). Consequently, we falsify Hypothesis_2: the Arctic provinces do
not share the same probability of occurrence of intraregional conflict.
Considering, on the one hand, the nature of geopolitical grouping
according to 16 attributes and, on the other hand, the Arctic states’ regime
type, attitude to conflict, and trade policy, we conclude that provinces
belonging to the “North America to Norway–Russia” and “Russia–
Northern Europe” buffers are more prone to potential intraregional conflict
than provinces belonging to the “Northern Europe–North America to
Norway” buffer.
Summary and Directions for Further Research
Based on theoretical assumptions of contemporary structuralist geopolitics,
cross-sectional data for 2000, 2005, and 2010, and technical capabilities of
cluster analysis, this study differentiates Arctic provinces according to
sixteen geographic and geopolitical attributes to understand, first, whether
the Arctic region is geopolitically homogenous (i.e. if no groups are
observable) and, second, whether the Arctic provinces share the same
probability of occurrence of intraregional conflict, throughout the first ten
years of the new millennium. We conclude that:
- There are three distinct geopolitical groups of Arctic provinces,
“Russia”, “Northern Europe”, and “North America to Norway”; - There are three intergroup buffer areas, “North America to Norway–
Russia,” “Russia–Northern Europe,” and “Northern Europe–North
America to Norway”; - In the context of climate change, group membership is stable in time in
93 percent of cases (in other words, in contrast to popular rhetoric,
neither the geographical nor the geopolitical configuration of the
region has changed dramatically); - Given the choice of attributes included in the research, Norway’s
position in Arctic geopolitics is more similar to those of Canada and
the United States than the other countries belonging to Scandinavia.
The same is true for both Danish provinces (except in the year 2000)