Strategic Regions in 21st Century Power Politics - Zones of Consensus and Zones of Conflict

Arctic Geopolitical Configuration

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and Iceland. These conclusions contradict the popular idea of these

territories being part of a unique Scandinavian geopolitical space;

• Among six provinces with the greatest variation of average
  temperature, Murmansk province has the highest potential for
  intraregional conflict;


• Provinces belonging to the “North America to Norway – Russia”
  buffer and the “Russia–Northern Europe” buffer are more prone to
  potential intraregional conflict than provinces belonging to the
  “Northern Europe–North America to Norway” buffer.

This study offers a diagnostic geopolitical map and a preliminary
discussion of the relationship between geography and intraregional
conflict in the Arctic region. Several steps are necessary to extend the
research. First, it would be appropriate to reveal the causes behind the
existence of four cases that challenge the stability of the clusters
(Sakha/Yakutia, Yamal-Nenets, Iceland, and the Faroe Islands), as it is
still unclear if outlier cases appear due to inconsistency of raw inputs to
the dataset, or because of a hidden geopolitical development which is not
obvious at the current stage of analysis. Second, it is also important to find
out whether an introduction of additional indicators of regional
development would alter Norwegian, Icelandic, and Danish belonging to
the “North America to Norway” cluster. Finally, keeping in mind the
limitations of both the dataset and cluster analysis, the data on other
aspects of geopolitical development in the region (among others, the level
of technological advancement, the domestic political configuration, the
ecological situation, the density of transportation, and labor force
specifics) should be obtained. Furthermore, current findings should be
supported by the use of other analytical techniques (regression-based
approaches, qualitative analysis) in order to reveal and eliminate negative
statistical effects (namely multicollinearity and heteroscedasticity) and to
enrich the study by adding variables which reflect the subjective
geopolitics of the region into the model.

Works Cited

Primary Sources

ArcticStat. Available at WWW: <www.arcticstat.org>
CIA World Factbook. Available at WWW:
<www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2012.html>