Chapter Eleven
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Methodological Approach
In order to identify the geopolitical considerations behind the plans for the
establishment of the Eurasian Economic Union, the following paper
focuses on Russia’s new regional integration initiative to fill the power
vacuum in its direct neighborhood, which is the former Soviet space. The
aim of the paper is to first analyse what steps have been taken by Russia
so far to launch the Eurasian Union as theoretically derived from the
framework of the EU’s economic integration process. Furthermore, the
paper analyses Russia’s existing integration attempts as being contradictory
to the convergence policy of the EU towards its direct European
neighborhood due to specific geopolitical considerations, such as the
struggle for regional dominance and power projection. For this purpose,
the research uses a qualitative analysis of Russia’s integration policy
towards the CIS countries and evaluates in particular the case of Ukraine
which is trapped between European and Eurasian integration aspirations.
In addition, a qualitative forecasting method has been applied to the
analysis with a view to the most significant geopolitical developments and
security challenges arising from the plans for establishment of the
Eurasian Economic Union. For this aim, two scenarios have been
presented, which describe the possible developments with regard to the
Eurasian Economic Union in the near future. The article ends with
conclusions, which can be derived from the aforementioned analysis, and
provide arguments about whether or not the launch of the Eurasian
Economic Union can be seen as Russia’s new regional integration
initiative towards the former Soviet space in a struggle for geopolitical
dominance.
Towards an Eurasian Economic Union
Historical background of Russia’s regional integration
initiatives
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, a power vacuum emerged in the
former Soviet space, resulting in many security risks–ranging from
“terrorist activities and trafficking in human beings, drugs, and weapons,”^13
to the emergence of the frozen conflicts in and around Nagorno-Karabakh,
Abkhazia and South Ossetia, or Transnistria.^14 Furthermore, the former
(^13) OSCE Yearbook 2006, 117.
(^14) Blank, “Russia and the Black Sea’s Frozen Conflicts in Strategic Perspective.”