The Eurasian Union as a Tool of Russian Geopolitics
213disadvantage European integration. The current cases of political and
economic blackmailing of sovereign states by Russia, such as with
Ukraine, are disturbing, because this also offends against the rules of the
World Trade Organization.
In conclusion, Ukraine sees itself as a bridge between the European
Union and Russia, playing a sustainable role in the relations between
them. However, the bridge function will become more and more difficult
after a possible signing of the association agreement with the European
Union. In this regard Ukraine will lose the tariff advantages in the trade
with Russia and the other two Customs Unions countries, meaning that
Ukraine will again start negotiating with the Eurasian Economic Union on
new customs and trade conditions, which are expected to be worse than
the current conditions.
Two Scenarios for the Development of the Eurasian
Economic Union
Scenario 1: The Eurasian Economic Union – old wine in new
wineskins
According to the first scenario, moderate regional integration within the
Eurasian Economic Union will further develop, but it will not have great
implications for Russia’s geopolitical role in the former Soviet space. The
first scenario assumes that the Eurasian Economic Union will be launched,
but will not manage to gain greater economic weight in the years to come,
meaning that Russia would not achieve greater geopolitical leadership in
the former Soviet space through regional economic integration in the
long-term perspective.
In this context, drawing parallels between the Eurasian Union as a new
successor of the Soviet Union belongs more or less to the political rhetoric
than to the political reality, since the first successor organisation of the
Soviet Union–the CIS–has not fulfilled these expectations so far.
According to scenario 1, Russia would particularly face difficulties in
speeding up the establishment of the Eurasian Economic Union, because
this regional integration project would remain “uneven and vague.”^49
Moreover, the Eurasian Union lacks the necessary attractiveness and
realistic incentives compared to other regional integration projects, such
as the Eastern Partnership initiative of the European Union. Thus, scenario
1 implies the possibility of having concurrent integration projects in the
(^49) Lukyanov, 30 May 2013.