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former Soviet space focusing on the CIS countries. In the short-run
perspective, countries such as Ukraine, Moldova, or Georgia seem to
prefer signing association agreements as well as deep and comprehensive
free trade area agreements with the European Union, rather than joining
the Eurasian Union, for the same above-mentioned reasons. The Eurasian
Economic Union is expected to have “particularly strong vertical politics
and oligarchic business trends,”^50 in which the link between policy
decision-making and business would be too strong. Furthermore, the
Eurasian Economic Union is not capable of introducing economic and
political modernisation as derived from the integration incentives of the
European Union. In this respect, the Eurasian integration project does not
leave room for promoting political transformation in terms of good
governance, rule of law, or administrative and sectorial reforms. To
conclude, scenario 1 assumes that Eurasian regional integration could not
introduce or promote greater economic development potential among the
CIS states and thus would not bring about greater convergence of
economic performance after the establishment of the Eurasian Economic
Union. If the Eurasian Economic Union does not manage to achieve
convincing economic results in the coming years, Russia will
consequently not profit from the establishment of the Eurasian Economic
Union, because merely acheiving mild to moderate effects would not be
enough to bring about Russian geopolitical leadership in the former Soviet
space.
Scenario 2: Russia’s new, rising integration project
in a struggle for geopolitical leadership
According to the second scenario, the steadily growing economic weight
of the Eurasian Economic Union is directly connected with geopolitical
implications for Russia’s future role in the former Soviet space. The
second scenario assumes that the multilateral framework of international
relations will continue to exist, resulting in the establishment of regional
centres of power. In this regard, Russia will seek economic and political
integration with the former Soviet republics as one of the pragmatic ways
of minimizing the risks and threats arising from globalization. In this
scenario, the stages of Eurasian integration could no longer be cancelled,
and the Eurasian regional integration would further advance and develop
in the former Soviet space.
(^50) Kasciunas and Sukyte, “Creation of the Eurasian Union and its Implications for
the European Neighborhood Policy”, 79.