South Korea, the Six Party Talks, and Relations with the Major Powers
231incredulity to the suggestion, reminding the first person that the civilians
in the North were Koreans, too, and that a number of Southerners,
including himself, still had family in the North who could be hurt or killed
if war broke out again.^35 The interaction was indicative of the wide array
of opinions held by South Koreans, and which have been represented by
the very differing approaches of Presidents Kim, Roh and Lee in the past
decade.
The peninsula managed to avoid any other violent outbreaks during the
remainder of Lee’s presidency, perhaps in part due to Kim Jong-Il’s
failing health at the time. The Council on Foreign Relations interviewed
Scott A. Snyder, a Senior Fellow for Korea Studies, and he had the
following to say on developments in 2011:
...the North Koreans have been focusing more on trying to renew dialogue.
Thus far, the provocative actions that we saw from last year have not been
repeated. We know the Chinese have weighed in to a certain extent. We
know that the United States and South Korea have strengthened their
commitments to deterrence against North Korean provocations. All these
factors probably play into a calmer situation this year.^36Furthermore, in October 2011, a physically weak Kim Jong-Il issued a
statement suggesting a willingness to re-engage in the Six Party Talks,
presumably out of a need for more economic aid. The US and South Korea
responded favorably to the suggestion, but implied that action towards
denuclearization needed to precede resumption of talks.^37 Three months
later, on December 17, 2011, Kim Jong-Il died, leaving the future of the
peninsula and the SPT up for speculation.
According to The Guardian, following Kim’s death, Lee announced
his willingness to “open the door” to improve relations with the North
under Kim Jong-Un, and expressed hopes for resumption of the Six Party
Talks. Yet the North expressed its continued unwillingness to negotiate
with the Lee Administration.^38 The hard line approach taken during the
Lee years was certainly unpopular with the North, as evidenced by the
escalation of violent rhetoric and action during his tenure in office. Thus,
while tensions remain high, the fairly recent regime changes on both sides
of the 38th parallel has perhaps opened the door to new possibilities.
(^35) Discussion among Koreans aged 14-17 on the day of the Yeonpyeong Island
attack, facilitated by the author in Busan, South Korea.
(^36) Gwertzman and Snyder, “Working Out a Strategy on North Korea.”
(^37) Gwertzman and Snyder, “Working Out a Strategy on North Korea.”
(^38) McCurry, “South Korean President Offers Talks with North’s New Ruler.”