Chapter Fourteen
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experience of the west and America. He has repeatedly argued that the
sources of national strength were different during different periods.
Sixteenth-century Spain relied on colonies and gold, seventeeth-century
Holland relied on trade and finance, eighteenth-century France relied on
its large population and army, nineteenth-century Britain relied on its
leading position in the industrial revolution and great naval power, and
today’s America relied on many factors, including its advantage in the
information technology revolution and economic globalization.^4
In the twenty-first century, changes to powers in the world and their
directions are mainly in two ways: one is “power transition,” another is
“power diffusion.” “Power transition” refers to the power that is transited
from a dominant power to another power which has status in the world.
Nye believes that a current outperformance of power transition is
happening, that national powers of Asian countries have increased rapidly,
and that a trend of power being transited from the west and America to the
east has emerged. “Power diffusion” refers to the fact that more and more
actors have joined the world stage along with its increasing openness, and
power is spread among state actors and non-state actors. “Power diffusion”
is a relatively a new process, which is more difficult to control for some
actors. In this globalized information age, the common challenge that all
countries (including superpowers) confront is that world politics will not
be limited among states but will be far beyond control.^5 What’s more,
“power diffusion” may be much more dangerous than “power transition.”
Traditionally, the most powerful country is no more than that which has a
large army, while in the new era, countries without military power or non-
state actors can also be prominent, and different modern races and non-
state actors are probably much more threatening to the US.^6
Escaping from the “power fading fatalism” cycle
At this time, in the beginning of the twenty-first century, the distribution of
the world’s power is uneven. America’s population is less than 5% of that
of the world, while its economy is 25%, its military expenditures are 50%,
and it has the largest resource of “soft power,” such as culture and
education. The US still has all of this, but the future of power is
controversial at present. Many analysts regard the 2008 global financial
(^4) http://www.rmlt.com.cn/News/201012/201012101033552615_2.html
(^5) http://myy.cass.cn/new463842s/.htm
(^6) http://www.rmlt.com.cn/News/201012/201012101033552615_2.html