Denying “America’s Decline”
261been much worse. The emergence of the “power fading fatalism” cycle
illustrates that people’s worry about decline is psychological, compared
with changes of power resources. Unfortunately, this thought is likely to
bring mistakes to policy-making.^10
Jousting between China and America
Nye maintains that the jousting between China and America mainly
depends on the uncertainties caused by China’s political reform, which are
usually underestimated. The economic development is promoting China’s
relative strength, but this doesn’t mean that China will surpass America
and become the most powerful country in the world.^11
Many predictions about China’s development in the future are not
reliable, such as Goldman Sachs’ prediction that China’s GDP will exceed
America’s in 2027, for they ignored America’s military and soft power
advantages, as well as China’s geopolitical disadvantage.
The economic level
In the following decades, China’s economic output may overtake that of
the US, but per capita income is the precise standard that measure one
country’s economy. There will still be a lot of backward rural areas in
China, and the population problem will be highlighted. China is far behind
the US in GDP per capita, technological innovation, and the extent of
financial market development, and the economic structures of the
countries are not at the same level.^12 Furthermore, this linear comparison
is not precise. The higher the economic development degree becomes, the
lower the growth rate will be.
When Standard and Poor downgraded America’s credit in August 2011,
“America’s decline” seemed to be strengthened. Yet Nye said that the
downgrade of US credit may not matter too much, and this couldn’t
change the power pattern between America and China, for we shouldn’t
misunderstand the essence of power.
Soft power
While America is busy facing the consequences caused by the Middle
(^10) http://news.ifeng.com/mil/4/detail_2011_10/11/9752292_0.shtml
(^11) http://cn.reuters.com/article/columnistNews/idCNCHINA-4734320110809
?sp=true
(^12) http://www.rmlt.com.cn/News/201012/201012101033552615_2.html