30 Chapter Two
billion in 2012) with investments throughout the continent presently at
US$ 20 billion.^40
The Changing Geopolitical Setting
There is a belief amongst many observers that the international system will
experience fundamental changes regarding the geopolitical landscape in
the twenty first century. Huntington, in his determining work The Clash of
Civilization and the Remaking of the World Order, noted that global
politics has become both multipolar as well as multi-civilizational and that
the West, when compared to other civilizations, will continue to decline.
In contrast, after numerous centuries, countries and institutions located
geographically in the East (and South)–including various countries within
different regions in Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin America–are emerging
as significant participants in the international terrain.^41
It is not unrealistic to suppose that foreign policy, international relations
and diplomacy will increasingly be based on economic realities and
developing geo-strategic relationships in a globalised multipolar world.
There is a strong belief that there is a shift in power from the West (and
North) to the East (and South), which directly impacts the growing
relevance of BRICS countries and their growing geopolitical importance.
According to Kaplan, the Western Pacific and the greater Indian Ocean
will be the central theatre of the twenty first century. Eighty five percent of
oil imports presently go through the Indian Ocean and the Malacca Strait
that reach China’s Pacific Ocean harbors. As the US continues its decline
there will be a growing need to protect the Sea Lines of Communication
(SLOC). There will also be an expectation that various emerging (as well
as advanced) countries such as Brazil, India, South Africa, Japan,
Australia, South Korea and the US, will provide additional security to
cover ocean transportation routes. Kaplan also stressed that that China will
increasingly translate its economic influence into sea power.^42
The BRICS countries share strong political and economic relationships
with other African, Asian, European and Latin American countries. The
organisation has the potential to make significant changes in the
international economic order by utilising a common currency for trade and
(^40) Stood, “BRICS: A Wall for some and a Platform for others.”
(^41) Khanna, The Second World: Empires and Influence in the New Global Order;
The World Bank, “Global Development Horizons 2011: The Changing Global
Corporate Landscape”, 73-122.
(^42) Kaplan, Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power, 278-
293.