52 Chapter Four
Friedberg 2005 etc.). This chapter seeks to analyze the situation in this
region through the lens of geopolitical reasoning. However, this paper
does not use the (currently extremely popular) perspective of critical
geopolitics (see O ́Toal 1999); on the contrary, it employs a neo-classical
approach. The basic theoretical background stems from the offensive
neorealism of John Mearsheimer (2001). In addition, it seeks to
systematically investigate the role of geographical configuration as a
factor in potential power competition. The main impact of geography is
seen in its ability to influence military operations and consequently to
influence credibility of threats, alliance commitments, etc.
This chapter tries to provide a response to three questions. How does
geography influence dynamics of power politics in (South) East Asia
(SEA)? Is it possible to create an effective counter-hegemonic balancing
coalition in the region without the military commitment of the USA?
Finally, what are the prospects for small powers in the region –
specifically Taiwan?
The article proceeds in four steps. Firstly, I discuss the basic
theoretical tenets employed in this paper and elaborate on the significance
of (physical) geography and its configuration in military operations. In the
second step I describe the current regional setting within South East Asia
and the regional geographical configuration. The third part deals with the
implications of the combination of a regional balance of power and its
geographical configuration. The final part attempts to provide specific
implications for the future of an independent Taiwan.
On offensive neorealism and the role of space
This paper is theoretically built on offensive neorealism as elaborated by
Mearsheimer (2001). The core assumptions and principles of this theory
are articulated below. Firstly, states are the key actors in international
politics. The primary interest of states is their survival. States live in an
anarchical environment; therefore they have to fear for their survival and
relative power, since there is no higher authority able to defend a victim of
an aggression. States can never be sure about the (namely future)
intentions of other states, meaning that there is a permanent possibility of
war and physical annihilation. It follows, then, that states should care
about the power they possess. It is possible to claim with some
simplification that, ceteris paribus, an increase of power causes an
increase in security. Therefore, calculated and prudent power maximization
is the best strategy in this environment (see Mearsheimer 2001). It follows
that the world according to offensive neorealism is a place where great