Strategic Regions in 21st Century Power Politics - Zones of Consensus and Zones of Conflict

Power Politics 59

robust defense of individual states will become the main obstacles for
creating an effective and lasting counter-hegemonic alliance.
Under these conditions it seems that the future of (South) East Asia
will be determined by two key decisions (see figure 4-3). The first is the
willingness of the USA to balance China. Given that the USA is a sea
power with enormous economic power, China will not able to compete
with the USA at sea anytime soon. The other is whether China will focus
on land or sea. A focus on land would improve the security situation of
East Asian States, whereas a focus on sea would have the opposite effect.

Figure 4-3: strategic prospect of SEA^6

Access

denial–

defensive

doctrine

Disintegrated

doctrine

Land Cheap and

stable

deterrence

Without

significant

competition

Deterrence, at

least in short time

horizon

Sea Stable – if costly – deterrence

within 5-10

years

Later,

deterrence only

for the strongest

(Japan)

No deterrence,

the most

dangerous

scenario

Possibility of

escalation for an

insignificant issue

China
Focuses
on

Minor powers within the

region opt for

Access denial

• defensive
  doctrine

Disintegrated

doctrine

Land Cheap and

extremely stable

deterrence

Deterrence.

However, some

offensively oriented

doctrines combined

with the presence

of the USA could

force China to

acquire sea power

Sea Stable deterrence,

even in the long

run

Deterrence,

however the USA

will bear

disproportionate

share of burdens

Potential for

escalation

Minor powers within the

region opt for

Without the USA With the USA

In Place of a Conclusion: Implications for Taiwan

In order to finalize the previous discussion, I would like to provide the key
implication for Taiwan. Taiwan is a small nation, and, as it is (for
historical and strategic reasons) the focal point of Chinese foreign policy,
one can guess that its position is highly problematic.

(^6) Source: author.