Financial Times Europe - 21.03.2020 - 22.03.2020

21 March/22 March 2020 ★ FTWeekend 3

domestic product growth, had under-

gone a major shift to favour “consump-

tion that is more indoor-based than out-

door-based”,MsTanadded.

Thishasbeenaboonforsomecompa-

nies, such as technology group Tencent,

whose online video games haveseen a

surge n new users as tens of millions ofi

Chinese have been forced to stay at

home.But the shifting patterns of con-

sumerbehaviourhaveleftmanysectors

strugglingtoregaintheirfooting.

Retailers of everything from cars to

handbags and clothing have been hit

especially hard, with sales in January

and February droppingmore than 20

per cent ear on year, according to offi-y

cialdatapublishedthisweek.

mal levels and box office admissions — a

proxy for public consumption — virtu-

allynonexistent.

Data from BigOne Lab, a Beijing-

based research company, show substan-

tial improvement across the country for

the 1m restaurants, food vendors and

conveniencestoresittracksthatarereg-

istered with online delivery platform

Meituan Dianping. More than 80 per

cent of these erew shut n February buti

nowlessthan40percentremainclosed.

“People still have to eat no matter

what,” said Christy Tan, head of mar-

kets strategy and research for Asia at

NationalAustraliaBank. Butthenature

of China’s consumer economy, which

accounts for almost 60 per cent of gross

H U D S O N LO C K E T T —HONG KONG
RYA N M C M O R R OW —BEIJING

Chinese businesses are slowly resum-
ing operations after the coronavirus
lockdownsbrought the economy to a
standstill, but alternative and indus-
trial sector data show a sluggish recov-
ery with most areas of activity still well
below their usual levels.

The Financial Times China Economic
Activity index, a weighted measure of
six daily data series tracking the coun-
try’s economic recovery, shows arise in
trafficandcoalconsumptionactivity.
But other areas of the economy con-
tinue tostagnate, with sales of real
estate floor space stuck far below nor-

CO R O N AV I R U S

H E N RY M A N C E

“It’s confusing,” said a worker at a nurs-
ery in north London. “They say don’t do
this, don’t do that. But they say you can
goout.”
Before UK prime minister Boris John-
son ordered the closure of pubs, restau-
rants and gymsyesterday, London had
beencaughtintwominds.
Offices had emptied, supermarkets
had been hit by panic-buying, and
emergency neighbourhood WhatsApp
groups had been created. But a sizeable
minority of the capital’s 9m inhabitants
continued to socialise as normal, dilut-
ingthesenseofpublicemergency.
Mr Johnson had initially hoped to rely
on Londoners’ self-discipline: he asked
them not to spend time in restaurants
and pubs, rather than banning them
fromdoingso.
In response, not just essential outlets
remained open, but gyms, estate agents,
florists, tanning salons and even choco-
latiers.Withschoolsnotshutdownuntil
the afternoon, many parents and teach-
ers argued that they were probably
exposed to coronavirus anyway. Some
wantedtosupportlocalbusinesses.
On the streets, builders, traffic war-
dens and other blue-collar workers
werebeingpaidtocarryonasusual.
“If I’m going to get [the virus], I’m
going to get it,” said Aston, a delivery
driver, explaining that his customers
had to touch his phone to sign for their
package.
Not all his deliveries were obviously
urgent: the previous day he had deliv-
ered Post-it notes to one customer. “But
she cried for them. People want their
gear.”
London is the heart of the UK’s coro-
navirus outbreak, accounting for more
than one-third of the country’s 3,
confirmedcasesasofyesterday.
Yet, unlike in other major European
cities, life in the city hadonly caused a
slowdown. Transport authorities have
called for only “absolutely necessary”
travel, but some Underground trains
werefull.
Citymapper, a routefinder app, said
that its usage was 39 per cent of its usual
level on Thursday, compared with 5 per
cent in Paris, 9 per cent in San Francisco
and18percentinBerlin.
Tim Martin, the outspoken chairman
ofpubchainJDWetherspoon,saiditwas
“overthetop”toclosepubs.Hiscustom-
ers, many of them old men, appeared to
agree.
“I’mjustgettingonwithwhatIhaveto
do,” said Andy, halfway through a lager,
inIslington.“Ifyouknowthemechanics
of your own body — eat well, live well —
your system should shut it down, from
whatI’veread.”
In another Wetherspoon’s pub, two
young women had finished lunch, wear-

ing surgical gloves. “I haven’t seen my

friend for a long time,” explained one of

them. “Also it feels airy in there. And I

hadmyglovesonthewholetime.Buton

SundayI’minlockdown.”

Unsure whether the pandemic was a

marathon or a sprint, some Londoners

decided to set off for a gentle jog; the

city’s parks have been well-trodden in

recentdays.

What explains London’s lacklustre

response? It is a city where residents are

used to squeezing every minute from

every day, where the second world war

slogan “Keep Calm and Carry On” has

long been a meme. It was always

unlikelytoshutdownofitsownaccord.

Londoners may also not be clear

about the human cost of the virus.

Although at least 177 people have died,

their names are not front page news in

the way that the victims of past terrorist

attacks have been. The main TV bulle-

tins, whose audiences have increased

sharply, have focused on the disruption,

notthelossoflife.

That disruption is clearly visible.

There were no planes in the skies above

central Londonyesterday, and Covent

Garden and Trafalgar Square were vir-

tuallyemptyofpedestrians.Someofthe

capital’s biggest tourist attractions,

including the National Gallery, the Tate

Modern and the London Eye, were

closed. Footfall on shopping streets has

fallendramatically.

AYouGovpollfoundthatBritonssup-

ported a lockdown in London by a mar-

gin of 64 per cent to 17 per cent, but

among Londoners support was weaker,

at 57 to 27. Unusually, given the UK’s

recent political divisions, views did not

vary much by respondents’ stance on

Brexit,ageorsocialclass.

As ofyesterday, London was a differ-

ent place. But it still felt like a halfway

house.

London’s lacklustre response to crisis

rooted in ‘keep calm and carry on’ spirit

Residents used to squeezing most from the day unsure how to take advice on social distancing

Two minds:

central London

has emptied but

a sizeable

minority of

residents are

continuing to

socialise as

normal

Charlie Bibby/Financial Times

‘I’m just

getting on

with what I

have to do.

Your

system

should shut

[the virus]

down, from

what I’ve

read’

H E N RY F OY— MOSCOW

E VA SZ A L AY— LONDON

Russia’s central bank defied the global

rate-cutting trend yesterday by hold-

ing rates steady, choosing to protect its

battered currency despite the looming

threat of a global economic slowdown

as the coronavirus pandemic spreads.

The bank paused its easing cycle and

held its benchmark rate at 6 per cent,

fearful that a cut would exacerbate the

30 per cent fall in the rouble this year

that has made the Russian currency one

oftheworld’sworstperforming.

But it warned that theeconomy faced

a “downturn of economic activity in the

coming quarters” and announced a

number of initiatives including a

Rbs500bn ($6.3bn) bank lending facil-

ity with an interest rate of 4 per cent to

offer loans to small and medium-sized

businesses.

“The situation has changed dramati-

cally, primarily in the global economy,

in the global commodity and financial

markets. Now events are developing

according to a different scenario from

our basic forecast suggested in early

February,” governor Elvira Nabiullina

said in a press conference following the

rate announcement that underlined the

lack of clarity over the bank’s best

courseofaction.

“I would say that the board of direc-

tors today was non-standard... for the

keyrate,weconsideredthreeoptions:to

lower,increaseorleaveunchanged,”she

added.

Policymakers were caught in a bind

between protecting the rouble and

offering support to the economy by fol-

lowing the raft of central banks around

the world that have cut rates this week

in an effort to promote lending as the

virus outbreak sparks national lock-

downs, crashing markets and closing

factories.

The roubleis down 19 per cent since

thestartofMarch.

Central banks

Russia holds

rates to help

rouble despite

global threat

Recovery

China struggles to resume life as normal

ministry will aim to release specific

guidelines for schools to reopen from

April,thestartofthenewschoolyearfor

Japan. But only schools in areas where

the number of infections has been low

areexpectedtoresumeclasses.

The discussions came as a panel of

experts on Thursday warned that Japan

could face a sharp rise in infections if

current measures to contain the out-

breakwerenotcontinued.

Until now, Japan has avoided aspike

in infections seen in countries such as

Italy, Iran and Spain, and the death rate

remains relatively low. As of yesterday,

fewer than 1,000 people had been

infectedand34peoplehaddied.

education authorities across the coun-

try by surprise. But after an initial out-

cry from some local governments, the

move was treated by parents as a neces-

sarilyboldmeasuretostopthespreadof

the disease and protect Japan from the

kind of explosive infection rates seen in

WuhanandotherChinesecities.

Japan’s move came as countries

worldwide,fromtheUK,Italy,Germany

to the US and Iran are strengthening

measures toshut chools and cancels

large gatherings. In Asia, classes in

Taiwan have resumed, but most schools

remain closed across China, Hong Kong

andSouthKorea.

By early next week, the education

K A N A I N AG A K I A N D L E O L E W I S— TOKYO

Japan has begun discussions that would
make it one of the first Asian countries
affected by the oronavirus outbreakc
to reopen some schools from April,
despite a warning from experts of a
potential “explosive” increase in infec-
tions if control measures are lifted.

Following a government meeting yes-
terday, Koichi Hagiuda, education min-
ister, said it was agreed that the nation-
wideclosure of schools hat Shinzo Abe,t
prime minister, requested from early
Marchwouldnotbeextended.
MrAbe’sabruptannouncementofthe
school closures in late February took

Education

apan considers reopening schools in AprilJ

MARCH 21 2020 Section:World Time: 3/202020/ - 18:27 User:john.conlon Page Name:WORLD2 USA, Part,Page,Edition:USA , 3, 1