30 The Americas
~Health Organisation said it might cause
cancer. SpJaying by hand continues-men
in hazmat suits carefully target individual
plants. Mrnump wants to dump clouds of
glyphosate over wide areas again. "You're
gonna have to spray," he told Mr Duque on
March 3rd. "If you don't spray, you're not
gonna get rid of [the coca fields).~
Colombia may have to comply. The
nump adminismtion has previously
threatened to decertify it as an ally in the
war on dmgs, which could trigger sanc-
tions and the withdrawal of most American
aid. u.Aggresslve forced eradication [is] away of appeasing the US govemment,ft
writes vanda Felbab-Brown of the Brook-
ings Institution, a think-tank.
Since 2000 the United States has given
Colombia more than $ubn to fight drugs
and deal with insurgencies. For 20SS-20
Congress has approved $418m in ald to
continue that war, and also to promote
peace with ex-rebels and mral develop-
ment. In 2016 the PARC, the laigest insur-
gentgroup, signed a peace deal and bas la.id
down its arms. 'Ihat creab!cl a vacuum in
other parts of the countiy that has been
filled by other drug-dealing groups.'11te virus ought to favour a deal between the regime and the oppositionA
s IF IT were needed, coronavirus isa
auel reminderthatthe man who
bolds all the power in Venezuela is not
Juan Guaid6, whom some6o countries
recognise as its president, but Nicolu
Maduro, the dictator who kept the office
by electoral theft. Blaming foreigners for
36 detected cases of covid-t9, on March
16th Mr Maduroorderedalockclown of
the countly similar to those in Spain and
Italy, placing the armed forces in charge
of enforcing it. That may be medically
sensible. It is also politically convenient.
ll.(rGuaid6,whoisthespeakerofthe
National Assembly, last month began a
new round of street demonstrations
api.nstMr Maduro's regime, which will
now presumably stop. They are a shadow
of the massive protests that followed. bis
proclamation as uinterim presidenr 14
months ago, whenMr Maduro began a
second term after a fraudulent election.
In theory the opposition remains com-
mitted to ousting Mr Maduro and calling
a democratic presidential ballot. But
sweeping American sanctions on Vene-
zuela's oil industry have so far failed to
break the regime. Talks between govern-
ment and opposition broke down in
September. That leaves the opposition
with a dilemma.
Under the constitution an election for
the National Assembly is due towards the
end of this year. In 2015, in Venezuela's
last free election, the opposition won a
big majority in the assembly. Mr Madu-
ro's people see the chance to seize the
only institution they don'tcontrol.
Radicals in the opposition insist that the
vote will be a farce and pledge to boycott
it Any credible election would have to
include a fresh presidential vote, they
say. Pragmatists fear that a boycott will
render the opposition ilTelevant. They
see a faint opportunity for a deal.Earlier this month representatives of
thegovemmentand the opposition agreed
on a procedure to appoint new members to
the electoral authority. In theory the gov-
ernment would accept international ob-
servation of the vote, by the UN and the
European Union, says a European dip-
lomat. But there are plenty of obstacles.
Around 30 of the opposition's legislators
have been stripped of their parliamentary
immunity by MrMaduro's puppet judicia-
ry, and are either in exile or jail. Its main
parties are banned on technicalities. Any
deal would have to involve complete free-
dom to campaign.
But Mr Maduro bas weaknesses, too.
Thanks mainly to his mismanagement,
Venezuela is in no condition to cope with
the virus. Its hospitals were already death
traps. Many of its doctors are among the
4.5m Venezuelans who have fled bis rule.
With Russian help, Venezuela's produc-
tion of oil, which acwunts for 95% of its
legal exports, has stopped falling (though
it is still only 60% of its l~l of 2018). But
this month's plunge in the oil price leaves
it below Venezuela's average cost of pro-The Economist March 21st 2020In remote areas where the state is more
or less absent, dozens of local leaders are
being murdered. Intensive forced eradica-
tion of coca makes matters worse. It alien-
ates mral Colombians from the state, ar-
goes .Ms Felbab-Brown, and so makes it
harder to pacify the coca-growing areas.
often, the state destroys a farmer's liveli-
hood today and offers an alternative, such
as a road to get papay.ts to market, some
time in the future. For peasants who live
hand-to-mouth, this is unappealing.
Meanwhile, on the other side of Colom-
bia is an emergency that outsiders are ne-~duction. OnMarchisthMr Maduro wrote
to the IMP, which he bas spent years
denouncing as an imperialist tool, ask-
ing for a $sbn loan to fight covid-19. The
IMPtumed him down because his gov-
ernment lacks sufficient international
recognition.
There is little sign that MrGuaid6's
backers in the administration of Presi-
dent Donald numpare prepared to
contemplate any deal in Venezuela. This
weekMrnump nominated carlosnu-
jillo, a hardliner, to be bis top diplomat
on Latin America. The region continues
to be polarised by Venezuela, as the battle
to be secretary-general of the Organisa-
tion of American States, a 34-member
dub, bas illustrated. LuisAlmagro, the
Uruguayan incumbent, is seeking a
second term in a vote of foreign min-
isten due to take place on March 20th
(virus permitting). A vocal opponent of
Mr Maduro, be has been more effective at
grandstanding than diplomacy, say his
critics. But there is no space for nuance.
Hugo de Zela, an experienced Peruvian
diplomat who favoured a less confronta-
tional approach, this week dropped out.
Mr Almagro is likely to beat bis remain-
ing rival, Mana Fernanda Espinosa, a
fonnerEcuadorean foreign minister
widely seen as Mr Maduro's candidate.
The hardliners have a problem. There
is no evidence that sanctions alone will
get rid of Mr 11.(aduro. That means having
to deal with him, one way or another.
This week Colombia, which has no dip-
lomatic relations with venemela, recog-
nised that when its health minister
spoke to his counterpart about the vims.
None of this means caving in to dic-
tatorship. It is merely to grasp that the
virus off en a fresh opportunity for nego-
tiations. "It's a road; says the European
diplomat. "There is no other one.n