Asia The Economist March 21st 2020
C.OVld-19 In IndiaThe billion-person question
DELHI
If the coronavirus i1 taking hold, the con1equenc:e8 will be e1pecia11:y grim
I
T WAS CALLBD the Spanish influenza, but
given the number of Indians it killed, the
flu pandemic of 1918"'19 should perhaps
have canied a different name. some 18m
are thought to have died, or 6% of the coun-
tly's population at the time. A century later,
with covid"'19 lapping at India's now far
more crowded shores, fears are rising that
the world's second-most-populous coun-
try could again bear a disproportionate
share of the global agony.
until now, India has been lucky with
this coronaviIUS. Despite the prmimity of
China there is only modest human traffic
between the.Asian giants, a result of chron-
ically strained relations. Nor do many trav-
ellers visit India from other early centres of
the pandemic, such as llan and Italy. Partly
as a result, India has registered fewer than
200 cases so far, and only three deaths.
Most of those testing positive acquired the
virus out.side the country.
Indian governments, both central and
state, have also been strikingly forceful in
their response. They were quick to restrict
travel from afflicted areas and apply basic
screening at airports. India has also airlift-
ed-and closely monitored the health of-
hundreds of its own citizens from stricken
spots such as Wuhan, Teluan and Milan.
PUblic information campaigns have satu-
rated every television channel; recorded
messages even interrupt calls on India's
goom mobile phones. Across most states,
schools and universities have been shut
and public events cancelled. K.erala in the
far south, a state with a record of excellence
in public health, has gone further. Volun-- Short of llfe 111pport
Government health spending per person, 2016
CUnent $'000 at purthaslng-power partty
United States
Germany
Australia
Singapore
South Korea
Thailand
Cnlna
India
Pakistan0 2 4 6 8-7 Also in this section34 Banyan: The Paclflc self-Isolates
35 Receaslon looms ln Australia
36 Extremism In the Maldlves
36 MakingwagyuJapanese apinteers now deliver free school lunches di-
rectlyto homes, while kerbside basins have
been installed at even the remotest rural
bus stations to encourage hand-washing.
To enforce adherence to individual isola-
tion orders, health authorities farther
north in Maharashtra are stamping hands
in indelible iokwith the word •Home Quar-
antined" and an expiry date.
Health officials insist that they have
managed to limit infections to people who
were exposed to the 'Virus abroad and their
immediate contacts within India. In some
places, they have been assiduous in finding
and isolating those at risk. One case in K.er-
ala. where success in stemming an out-
breakof the far deadlier Nipah virus in 2018
has built institutional expertise, involved
tracing nearly l,OOO people who had come
in contact with a single family. But not all
states are as efficient. Border screening va-
ried between entry points and never
amounted to more than taking the tem-
peratures of passengers-a dragnet a co-
vid-carrier could slip through by taking
paracetamol, a doctor grumbles.
Many also note the paucity of testing
data. Due to the cost and relatively small
supply of testing kits, plus the limited ca-
pacityof govemmentlabs and a commend-
able desire to control the complex testing
process so that it does not itself become a
vector for the 'Virus, India has so far only
tested some :u..soo people. This compares
with 270,000 in South Korea, a country
with a fraction of the population. And be-
cause the testing protocol has focused so
heavily on travellers, it has become what
one expert calls a self-fulfilling prophecy, ~