46 Europe
~ Nationally, the percentage increases
have also been dropping. But the latest fig-
ures showed an uptick, from u.6% to
13.4%, as the virus spread out to other re-
gions north and south of Lombardy. The
absolute numbers. which are what matter
to the countt:y's regional health services,
keep rising alarmingly.
So far the south has had fewer than .5%
of cases. But tens of thousands of people
have fled from the north as the virus
spread. The worry is that some are asymp-
tomatic carrien and that the next few days
could see the tally of infections soar in the
Mezzogiorno, where people have been less
scrupulous in respecting the lockdown.
TheextentanddUDtionoftheepidemic
will also determine its impact on a weak
economy. Fr.mcesco Daven, who teaches
macroeconomics at Bocconi university in
Milan, says much depends on when the
countty returns to normal. If it is in June,
he conjectures that the fall in GDP for 2020
could be 2-3%-flubstantially less than the
5.5% fall in .2009 after the financial crisis.
That is a big •ir, though.
On March 16th Giuseppe Conte's
government, a coalition of the centte-left
Democratic Party (PD) and the anti-estab-
lislunent Five Star Movement (M5s), un-
veiled an emergency budget worth €2Sbn
($27bn). n includes€1obn of support for in-
comes and employment, such as a pay-
ment in March of €6oo for non-salaried
workers and a two-month freeze on lay-
offs. Other measures include loan guaran-
tees anda moratorium on loan repayments
for small and medium-sized companies.
•eut, almost certainly, a second raft of mea-
sures will be needed, targeted more selec-
tively at the sectors that have suffered
most: says Mr Daveri.
The emergency budget marked the sec-
ond time Mr conte bad trumped his critics,
notably in the hard-right Northern League,
by providing more than they bad demand-
ed (the first time was when he applied stiff-
er containment measures across the entire
country). As before, he waited to show it
was be, not they, who was in wntrol. His
canny tactics are paying off: the most re-
cent poll found 62% of voters endorsed his
government's handling of the epidemic.
one exception is the league's leader,
Matteo salvini. He has kept up a barrage of
criticism, despite evidence that Italians
want their politicians to mute their dlffer-
ences until the crisis is over. on March 16th
hewasembarrassedbyaphotographshow-
ing him and his girlfriend strolling
through Rome, ignoring the government's
insistence that people keep a metre apart
and possibly its requirement that they have
a valid reason for leaving home. Mr Salvini
said he was shopping for necessities. "This
is surely not bis moment,• says Sofia ven-
twa, a professor of political science at the
University of Bologna.It is less obvious that in the longer term
the epidemic will undermine the
nationallstpopulismofwblchMrsalviniis
Italy's (and arguably Europe's) most promi-
nent champion. True, ithassweptawaythe
disdain for experts that is a core populist
trait. Never have Italians been keener to lis-
ten to their virologists and epidemiologists
or more respectful of their health workers.
But contempt for science is more charac-
teristic of the MSS, and the crisis may yet
lend credibility to the League's causes, in-
cluding its antipathy to globalisation and
its Euroscepticism. Already shocked by
their neighbours' refusal to allow the ex-
port of protective equipment, Italians were
appalled when on.March:12th the European
central Bank governor, Christine Lagarde,
appeared to rule out steps to protect naly
from the effects of additional borrowing,
though she later changed tack, and the
bank introduced a large new bond-buying
scheme on.March 18th.
"When Europe has been in need, Italy
has always given." Mr Salvini Ailed in one
of his many tweets. MNow that we are ask-
ing for help, all the [other] countries are
starting to close their frontiers." It is an
oversimplification, but one that will strike
a chord with many Italians. •SpainSanchez's big test
MADRID
The virus strikes a blow for nadonal
Wlity in a divided c:ounttyN
EX.TTO THE Sleet of the V'.irgin of Dan-
gers, in the heart of Madrid, builders
have been finishing years of work on a big
new luxury hotel that was due to open in
May. Like almost everything else in Spain's
economy, that plan is now up in the air.
Facing Europe's worst outbreak of covid-19
after Italy's, Spain's government on March
14th imposed a state of eme1gency, loclcing
the country down for 15 days. Down the
road from the hotel the Puerta de Sol, a nor-
mally busy transport hub, is deserted. With
14,370 cases and 630 deaths by March 18th,
rising steeply each day, the shutdown is
likely to last atleast a month. It is a test not
just of the patience of Spaniards but of their
inexperienced coalitiongovemment After
a halting start, Pedro Sbchez, the socialist
prime minister, at least seems to have the
counttybebindhim.
In Spain's decenbalised democracy,
health care is run by regional governments,
and SO in catalonia and the Basque COUDtly
is policing. The novel wronavirus has tak-
en its strongest grip in Madrid, governed by
the conservative opposition People's PartyThe Economist March 21st 2020The prime minister of all Spain(PP). As cases ramped up last week Mr s!n-
chez was accused of being "behind events•
by Pablo Casado, the pp's leader.
Acting unilaterally, the Madrid regional
government closed all educational estab-
lishments as well as day centres for old
people; the Basque government closed
some schools; and catatonia isolated
70,000 people around the town of Igua-
lada. The opposition criticised Mr Sbchez
and Podemos. his far-left coalition ally, for
allowing a big feminist march to go aliead
on March 8th. Several of those who took
part, including the partners ofbothMrS!n-
chez and Pablo Iglesias, Podemos's leader,
later tested positive for the virus (as have
other politicians from the right).
The government at last got a grip on
March 14th when, after a seven-hour cabi-
net meeting, it issued its emergency de-
cree. The delays reflected disagreement be-
tween the economic team, wblch favoured
caution, and thosewho favouredlockdown
and sweeping compensation.
The decree puts the national govern-
ment in charge of health care and policing.
It prompted grumbling from Quim Torra,
the separatist head of the Catalan adminis-
ttation and to a lesser extent from his
Basque nationalist counterpart. Mr S!n-
chez insists that the virus is no respecter of
ideology or place. Most of the opposition
has swung behind him. That may make it
easier for him to get a budget through con-
gress. He needs it: despite public debt of
96% of GDP, the government announced a
big, and welcome, package to help laid-off
workers and struggling businesses.
So far Spaniards seem to be rallying
round. Each evening at 8pm residents
stand on balconies to applaud harried
health workers. Patience may flag. But for
now, the virus has revived the nation-state
after years of centrifugal pressure. •