The Economist USA - 21.03.2020

Graphic detail Covid-19 and flights

The Eeonomist March 21st 2020 77

Ending the

nosedive

As Westem flights shut down, Chinese

ioutes are opening again

O

P ALL THE industries ravaged by co-

vid-19, aviation is one of the most af-

flicted. Governments have closed borders

and discouraged travel. rn response, most

western airlines plan to cut capacity on in-

ternational flights by about 8o%. The de-

scenthas been so steep that CAP.A. a consul-

tancy, says that most airlines will go

bankrupt by the end of May without state

aid. Yet in the ftIY country where covicl-i.g

began. this trend has started to reverse.

In lateJanuaryehina imposed.a quaran-

tine to contain the virus. Within weeks, ca-

pacity on both intemal and intemational

routes fell by about 75%, making up nearly

all of the world's cancelled flights in Febru-

ary. The decline in passengers was greater

still. Even after a big cut in capacity. 71% of

seats on fights to and from Guangzhou's

biggest airport in February were empty.

Since then, China seems to have put the

worst behind it The number of new co-

vid-19 cases it reports per day has dwindled

to a few dozen. Some observers doubt these

figures' veiacity. But the government is

confident enough to have closed its last co-

vid-19 hospital-and to promote flying. on

March 4th it began offering subsidies to

carrien that resume international fights.

on domestic routes, the recovery has al-

ready begun. capacity bas risen from 4.2m

seats per week in late Febmary to 8.6m

now. In a ftling on March 16th to OAG, a data

provider, Chinese airlines increa.sed the

number they expect to offer by April from

10m to :12.6m. That would nearly match last

year's level in time for two big holidays, the

Qingming festival and Labour Day.

There is no gu.anntee that people will

fill these flights. The government owns

stakesinthreeofthefourbigChinesecanl-

ers, and could tell them to fly mostly empty

planes at a loss, to restore connectivity be-

tween cities and facilitate an economic re-

covery. Nonetheless, Chris Tarry, a consul-

tant, suggests that the schedule changes

are motivated at least in part by a genuine

rise in expected demand.

Airlines that serve China are displaying

more caution on international routes. As

Western countties tighten travel rules, OAG

data show that carriers are heavily revising

downtheirseatcapacityonflight.sentering

China in April. For months, the world wor-

ried about the risk posed by Chinese visi-

tors. Now, it may be China's tum to worry

abouttr.ivellers from abroad. •

• Inbound tll1hts ta aome .Aalan c:ltlea fell by more than 7511& durlns Feb"'ary

Number of IVlllable airline 1.4m 1Jm

.. ts 1rriving in city, 2010

One waak" in

"'43k

'.

L__J

Jan Feb •Mar BetP111 TokyD

4S8k 611k

ca...l

6t

[S111n •

I

Sh1111hai

CHINA

359lt 471lt

~

l Kunm:

~

Taipei

TAIWAN

~

Ho•Kons

+The drap mostly affec:ted China. Waatem capacity cut• h11W1juat begun

Number of 1Y1il1ble airline Mitro~ ch1np on 1 year mrlier, 1elected weeks*

Within

Qln1t

Jan Fm Mar

Within .Aslt,

axduding Chln1t

Jan Fm Mar

Within

Eurupa

----

Jan Fm Mar

WllhlnUS

orC1nad1

Cllin1ftu

USorC1nM11

Jan Fm Mar

Einpeto

USorC1nMl1

•

• Chlnae alrllnas plan ta nwtore servica npldly before spring hollclaya

China, weekly miilable airline Rltl anivingt, m

Domestic llightl

Jan

International flights

Feb

Qlngmlng

fmlival

Labour Day

holiday

Sd1adulad ,---··------.. ,.

• ~ ~~
  Mardt9ttt , _, # # ------ .. " "
  .. :.-' ~'----~
  Scheduled --
  Mardi 16dl

Mar May

2D

0

-40

-80

2D

0

-2D

15

12

9

6

3

0

2.5

2.0

,, ·---------· 15

, ;'

Scheduled _ ---- - ,' 1 .o

--Mardi 9th -: ,

_ .. ,---------

---------3oo--=;;;;;;;;;;:;:~.;~ Sdledulad-------D.5=

--- March 11th

0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May

Sauro!£ OAG; CAPA *Weeks stirting: Jan 131h,, Feb 10th and Marth 161h tMainland airports