The Economist 07Dec2019

The EconomistDecember 7th 2019 29

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sin2017, this was meant to be a Brexit
election. Also as in 2017, it has quickly
morphed into one about the National
Health Service, security and terrorism. Yet
the pithiest slogan of the campaign is still
Boris Johnson’s much-repeated promise to
“get Brexit done”. And although his poll
lead has narrowed, the odds are that this
pledge will help bring him victory.
The question is: what then? With a Tory
majority, Parliament seems sure to ratify
the Article 50 withdrawal agreement that
Mr Johnson renegotiated in October in
time for Britain to leave the European Un-
ion by January 31st. The European Parlia-
ment, whose consent is needed, should do
the same. The psychological importance of
Brexit formally happening will be pro-
found, not least because it will kill the ar-
gument for holding a second referendum.
Yet Brexit will still not be done. On Feb-
ruary 1st Britain will move into a transition
phase, when it must abide by all eurules,
that ends on December 31st. Mr Johnson’s
plan is to negotiate and ratify a best-in-
class free-trade deal during this period.
There is a provision to extend the deadline

by one or two years, but this has to be

agreed on before July 1st. And the Tory man-

ifesto declares in bold type that “we will

not extend the implementation period be-

yond December 2020.”

Both houses of Parliament must also

pass a mass of other legislation to replace

the eu’s laws and regulations when the

transition period ends. These include bills

on fisheries, agriculture, trade and cus-

toms, immigration and financial services.

Several are both long and controversial,

which is why they have made minimal pro-

gress in the past two years.

More problematic will be the talks on

future relations with the eu. These will be

far more difficult than the Article 50 nego-

tiations, supposedly an easy first stage. A

new deal must cover trade, security, data,

research, student exchanges, farming and

fish, to name but a few areas. The list is so

extensive that the result will be a “mixed”

agreement, under Article 218, that needs

unanimous approval and ratification by 27

national and several regional parliaments.

The Institute for Government, a think-

tank, notes that less ambitious eutrade

deals with Ukraine, Canada, South Korea,

Japan and Singapore have taken between

four and nine years to negotiate and ratify.

That is why many are urging Mr John-

son to seek more time. But this will be

tricky, and not just because of his manifes-

to pledge. In transition Britain will be in a

form of vassalage, obliged to apply all eu

laws and regulations with no say in making

them. Extending the time limit requires

unanimous approval, and that may come

with conditions such as access to British

fisheries. It would also mean more money,

as Brussels would expect a hefty contribu-

tion from Britain, probably without keep-

The Conservatives

Leaving Brexit undone

Under Boris Johnson, the spectre of no-deal would return in December 2020

Britain

30 What happens in a hung parliament?

31 How to rehabilitate terrorists

32 Swing seats: Wrexham

32 Quotes from the campaign trail

34 The election in London

34 Lonely Tories in Liverpool

35 Bagehot: Pants on fire

Also in this section

Next week ’s copy ofThe Economistgoes to press before the results of the general

election will be known. Subscribers with digital access will be able to read a special

election edition on our apps on December 13th. And all subscribers will be able to

read our analysis of the results free online at economist.com/2019UKelection

Britain’s general election