The Economist 07Dec2019

32 Britain The EconomistDecember 7th 2019

candidates in marginal

seats such as Wrexham find

themselves inundated with

endorsements from big-

wigs during an election.

Priti Patel, the Conservative

home secretary, has paid a

visit to the former mining

town. For Labour Eddie Iz-

zard, a cross-dressing comedian, turned up

(“All I remember is he had better nails than

me,” says Mary Wimbury, Labour’s candi-

date). Plaid Cymru made do with backing

from Bootlegger, a Wrexham afcfan and

vlogger who describes himself as an “alco-

holic Welshman, living the dream on job-

seeker’s allowance” on Twitter, where he

has 213,000 followers.

Despite Bootlegger’s best efforts—and

163,000 views of his endorsement video—

Wrexham remains a straight fight between

Labour, which holds the seat, and the Con-

servatives. It is a fight the Tories are win-

ning, according to a poll for The Economist

by Survation. They stand at 44% as Labour

limps along on 29%, down 20 points from

the last election (see chart). Having been

held by Labour since 1935, Wrexham seems

ready to turn blue next week.

That is ominous for Labour. Wrexham is

part of the “Red Wall”, a term used by poli-

ticos in Westminster to describe an unbro-

ken stretch of 80-odd Labour-held seats

running from north Wales to Yorkshire. If

the Conservatives are 15 points ahead in

Wrexham, it suggests that nearby constitu-

encies such as Clwyd South and Vale of

Clwyd could also fall.

Our poll suggests that in Wrexham the

Conservatives’ vote-share has not moved

since 2017, whereas Labour’s has plummet-

ed. Labour voters have other places to go.

Plaid Cymru, a leftish party which advo-

cates Welsh independence and remaining

in the eu, has doubled its share of the vote,

partly thanks to a strong performance in

debates by Adam Price, its new leader. La-

bour-supporting Leavers who cannot

countenance backing the Tories have an

option in the Brexit Party. About six in ten

people in Wrexham voted for Brexit. “I am

going to win,” repeats Ian Berkeley-Hurst,

the Brexit Party candidate, whose relent-

less optimism belies the fact he is polling

in fourth place.

Bonds that once held the Labour vote to-

gether have been weakening for years.

There has been no working mine in the

area for three decades. And the constituen-

cy’s demography is changing in the Tories’

favour as Wrexham becomes a dormitory

town. Well-off voters are moving in,

splashing out on chunky family homes at

bargain prices, points out one Labour activ-

ist. In one suburb where houses change

hands for about £200,000 ($260,000),

many homes have fancy cars outside that

are worth almost a quarter that amount.

Labour still hopes that a squeeze on the

smaller parties may save it. On the door-

step, wavering voters are reminded that

Wrexham is a two-horse race between La-

bour and the Conservatives. Hopes hang on

the party’s manpower. Labour boasts 400

activists in the area and has been able to

count on help from outsiders: one volun-

teer had travelled from nearby Shropshire

on a sunny Tuesday afternoon; another

had come from Australia.

Yet national politics often trumps local

activism, and here things are tricky for La-

bour. Jeremy Corbyn “comes across as such

an honest, lovely man”, says one resident,

who will vote Labour for the first time.

More common is the view of another con-

stituent: “Get rid of Jeremy Corbyn and I’ll

vote for you.” Ms Wimbury, the Labour can-

didate, has the task of winning them all

round, taking praise for Labour’s leader

when it is occasionally offered and (more

often) deftly pointing out that it is her

name on the ballot and that she will stand

up to him in Westminster. For now, how-

ever, Wrexham looks like one brick in the

Red Wall that will come loose. 7

WREXHAM

The opposition fights a losing battle to

cling on in north Wales

The “Red Wall”

Labour’s last stand

Brexham

Wrexham constituency

2019 general election voting intention*, %

Sources: Survation;

The Economist

0 10 20 30 40 50

Lib Dem

Brexit Party

Plaid Cymru

Labour

Conservative

Other

Vote share, 2017

Central estimate

95% confidence interval

*Telephone poll of 405 adults

surveyed on November 27th-30th.

swing “Don’t know ” and refused removed

seats

Would he lie to you?

“I have nothing to do with it, never even

thought about it...If you handed it to us

on a silver platter, we’d want nothing to

do with it.”

Donald Trump protests, perhaps a little too

much, that he has no interest in the Nation-

al Health Service

The last word

“He would be seething at his death, and

his life, being used to perpetuate an

agenda of hate that he gave his every-

thing fighting against.”

Dave Merritt, whose son Jack was killed by

a terrorist near London Bridge, criticises the

politicisation of his murder. Guardian

Change the channel

“It’s on the morning, usually we have it

on some of the time.”

Jeremy Corbyn’s answer suggests he may

not be an avid viewer of the queen’s Christ-

mas Day speech, which is in fact broadcast

in the afternoon. ITV

Tough questions

“I am sorry that I did that. It was not the

right policy. And we should have stopped

it. And our manifesto...makes clear that

that should be scrapped.”

Jo Swinson tells the BBC’s Andrew Neil she

regrets the Lib Dems’ backing of austerity

measures while in coalition with the Tories

Not-so-tough questions

“I sometimes succumb to flapjacks...I can

drink an unlimited amount of coffee

without impeding my ability to go to

sleep at the end of the day.”

Boris Johnson, who has so far dodged being

interviewed by the fearsome Mr Neil, sub-

mits to a less searching cross-examination

from the Sun

Speakers’ Corner

Quotes from the campaign trail

Key lines from the final full week of the campaign