The Economist 07Dec2019

40 Europe The EconomistDecember 7th 2019

out raising the legal minimum retirement

age. But many people suspect that, whatev-

er he says now, everyone will have to retire

later anyway. A poll this week showed that

57% of French people believe this. Distrust

and confusion makes it easy for opponents

to whip up anger. Supporters of the strikes

include not just most of the big unions but

such odd bedfellows as the Socialist Party

and Marine Le Pen’s National Rally.

The government is expected to an-

nounce the new pension rules before the

end of the year. What it decides will depend

partly on how disruptive the strikes are,

and on how far the French are willing to put

up with them. In a nation founded on re-

volt, the French tend to be sympathetic to

strikes when they begin, and become less

so as the weeks drag on, or things turn viol-

ent. Today 64% say that they back the pen-

sion strikes. With this sort of protest, and

in contrast to thegilets jaunes, the govern-

ment at least has organisations to talk to.

But the president is deeply unpopular, the

unions are keen to teach him a lesson and

the government is on perilous ground. 7

2

O

n the nightbefore Christmas Eve last

year Zhang Jianmin, China’s ambassa-

dor to the Czech Republic, paid a visit to

Andrej Babis, the prime minister, on the

outskirts of the capital. The two men posed

for a photograph by a Christmas tree, but it

was not a social call. Mr Zhang objected to a

security warning about Huawei and zte

that had been issued by the country’s

cyber-security agency, and complained

that Mr Babis had banned his staff from us-

ing products made by the two Chinese tele-

coms giants. Mr Zhang emerged claiming,

in a statement posted on Facebook, that Mr

Babis had assured him that the security

warning had been “misleading” and the

ban hastily decided. It seemed briefly like a

Chinese diplomatic victory in Europe.

It was, instead, another in a series of

bumbling missteps by China that have left

it foundering diplomatically in the Czech

Republic. Humiliated by the statement, Mr

Babis publicly contradicted Mr Zhang, say-

ing flatly, “I do not know what the ambassa-

dor is talking about.” The limited Huawei

ban, imposed by Mr Babis and some gov-

ernment ministries, stayed in place. A

years-long effort to influence the political

and business elite of the Czech Republic,

and to turn the foreign policy of an eu

member country, was unravelling.

Officials in Western democracies have

grown anxious in recent years at China’s

increasing dexterity at exerting influence

far from its shores. But China’s experience

in the heart of Europe suggests its dip-

lomatic playbook is much trickier to exe-

cute in a democracy with a free press and

fairly strong institutions—and perhaps es-

pecially one, like the Czech Republic, that

has a historical sensitivity to being pushed

around by an authoritarian great power. “It

is a story of backlash,” says Martin Hala of

Sinopsis, which has monitored the rise and

fall of Chinese influence in the country.

In its courtship of the Czech Republic,

China has employed many of the same tac-

tics it has honed elsewhere. It has courted

public figures (including by putting some

on the payroll), promised substantial in-

vestment, sponsored cultural programmes

and events, and applied diplomatic pres-

sure when necessary. Analysts call the pro-

cess “elite capture”.

For a few years it appeared to be work-

ing. In 2013 Milos Zeman, a former prime

minister, was elected president. Though

the president does not set official Czech

foreign policy, he pursued a friendly rela-

tionship with Xi Jinping. That same year

Petr Kellner, a Czech billionaire oligarch

and supporter of Mr Zeman’s, won a covet-

ed Chinese national licence for one of his

companies, Home Credit, to make con-

sumer loans. In 2014 Huawei entered into a

five-year sponsorship contract with Prague

Castle, the presidential residence, agreeing

to supply Mr Zeman and his office with

servers, phones and other equipment

worth about $20,000 annually.

In 2015 cefcChina Energy, an oil con-

glomerate, announced that it would invest

billions of dollars in the Czech Republic. It

snapped up stakes in a football club, a

brewery and a hotel, and a few other busi-

nesses, including a little-watched tvsta-

tion. In 2016 China’s influence seemed to

be reaching an apex, with a state visit by Mr

Xi himself.

But then cracks started to appear. In

2018 Ye Jianming, the cefcchairman, was

detained in China on suspicion of corrup-

tion. Beyond the initial flurry of deals,

cefc’s largesse never materialised.

A nastier side also began to show. In

2016, after the Czech culture minister met

the Dalai Lama, a diplomatic no-no for Chi-

na, Mr Zeman abruptly cancelled plans to

award a medal to the minister’s 88-year-old

uncle, a Holocaust survivor. This year Chi-

nese authorities tried to press the mayor of

Prague, an outspoken critic of China’s hu-

man-rights record, into adhering to the

“one-China” principle that forbids dip-

lomatic relations with both China and Tai-

wan. When he refused, Chinese authorities

cancelled a long-planned tour of China by

Prague’s Philharmonic Orchestra.

Investigative journalists have caused

more problems. In July Czech public radio

reported that Huawei employees in Prague

were supplying information about their

clients to the Chinese embassy. In Novem-

ber Charles University closed its Czech-

Chinese Centre, which had been hosting

China-friendly conferences since its open-

ing in 2016, after a news website reported

that its executive secretary, and others, had

taken payments from the Chinese embassy

via a private company.

For now China’s efforts at “elite capture”

seem to have alienated the public. In a glo-

bal survey conducted this year by the Pew

Research Centre, 57% of Czechs viewed

China unfavourably, compared with just

27% who viewed it favourably—the widest

negative margin of any country surveyed in

Europe apart from Sweden.

Huawei is still in business in Prague de-

spite the warnings, and Mr Kellner has just

bought a popular tvstation, which critics

fear may now tone down scrutiny of China

(a spokesman for his company calls this

“completely paranoid”). Observers in

Prague reckon a battle over Chinese influ-

ence will continue for years. “I don’t think

it can be won, really,” says Janek Kroupa,

the journalist who reported the story on

Huawei employees sharing information

with the embassy. “It can only be fought.”^7

PRAGUE

China still has a lot to learn about

operating in democracies

China and the Czechs

Fumbling the

capture

Hands off Prague