46 United States The EconomistDecember 7th 2019
I
t would betoo much to describe Joe Biden’s “No Malarkey” bus
tour through Iowa this week as a desperate measure. Despite
much negative commentary on his candidacy, the former vice-
president continues to lead the Democratic primary field in na-
tional polls. With strong support from African-Americans, who
like his loyalty to Barack Obama and don’t love his rivals, he is also
ahead in second-phase primary states such as Nevada and South
Carolina. Yet in Iowa and New Hampshire he is now trailing Pete
Buttigieg, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. And as few candi-
dates have lost those early states and still won the nomination, his
eight-day, 650-mile tour through icy Iowa had a lot riding on it.
One long day on the trail started in Emmetsburg, northwestern
Iowa, across the road from a Lutheran retirement home. The
white-haired crowd might have been made up of its residents. Bi-
den supporters skew old, as pollsters say. Perhaps that makes them
more forgiving of the 77-year-old’s regular befuddlements; he re-
cently confused last year’s Parkland school shooting, which left 17
dead and the youthful Democratic base aroused in anger, with the
massacre at Sandy Hook six years earlier.
Biden supporters are certainly more receptive than younger
Democrats to his folksy language and 1990s view of America. Not-
withstanding a bold climate-change plan—which he mentions at
odd moments and often—he appears to have little interest in most
of the problems, such as slow wage growth, student debt and over-
concentration of corporate power, that exercise his rivals. In his
telling, America is broadly as it ever was, a country of strivers put-
ting “one foot in front of another”, wanting government out of the
way almost as much as they want its help. “You don’t want govern-
ment to fix all your problems but you want it to understand them,”
he says. “You’re hardworking, decent people, the soul of America.”
It can sound complacent, especially from a man first elected to
the Senate almost 50 years ago. That underlines what an odd front-
runner Mr Biden is turning out to be. Unlike their opponents,
Democrats overall are forward-looking. It is a posture reflecting
the party’s commitment to social justice, which unites its dispa-
rate parts. Yet the 77-year-old former vice-president’s age, record
and nostalgic politics all point to the past. Even the cosmetic mea-
sures he appears to have taken do. His taut and polished features,like those of an ageing game-show host, recall a time when Ameri-
cans were happier to take their leaders at glossy face value.
The many commentators who doubt that Mr Biden is the man
to beat Donald Trump have other jarring things to cite. Though a
cornerstone of the Democratic establishment, he is struggling for
money and top-level endorsements—above all from Mr Obama.
(Recent reports suggest the revered former president is not merely
agnostic, as he claims to be, but critical of Mr Biden’s candidacy.)
That reflects Mr Biden’s struggle in the early-voting states—which
is even more of an indictment than it may seem. Small and sparse-
ly populated, Iowa and New Hampshire are famously won by
pressing the flesh, which is his speciality.
Working his way around the post-event mêlée in Emmetsburg
(where he appeared to know many in attendance), he offered inex-
haustible bonhomie, including selfies, joshing greetings and
naughty kisses for delighted ladies. (“God love you!” he muttered,
between planting peckers on one aged cheek: “Thank you! [peck]
Thank you! [peck] Thank you!”) Famously bereaved, he also of-
fered consolation. A burly farmer was reduced to tears, and warm-
ly embraced by Mr Biden, as he described his late wife’s esteem for
him. And yet the Iowan and New Hampshire voters who have seen
most of Mr Biden, the polls suggest, have the biggest doubts about
him. “He’s a quality person. His age is a concern,” said a retired
nurse—and newly registered Democrat—looking on.
Yet he keeps clinging on. And none of Mr Biden’s rivals looks
clearly able to depose him. Ms Warren is in decline, Mr Sanders ap-
pears to have hit his ceiling, Mr Buttigieg, though rising, still has
little support from non-whites. This is starting to make Mr Biden’s
resilience look as significant as his weaknesses. It may be the most
important story of the election to date. And a day spent observing
his campaign also offered a couple of possible explanations for it.
One is that, having a choice to make, voters tend to weigh a poli-
tician’s flaws against his competitors’. And the underappreciated
moderation of most Democratic voters made them relatively toler-
ant of Mr Biden’s platitudes when the main alternative was the ex-
cessive miserabilism of Mr Sanders and Ms Warren. If he is incuri-
ous about the economy’s weaknesses, the left-wingers seem
unable to account for its current strength—illustrated by rows of
gleaming trucks outside Mr Biden’s events. Mr Buttigieg, the first
formidable moderate challenger Mr Biden has faced, may be erod-
ing that advantage. Hence Mr Biden’s big push this week.Kindness to strangers
His apparent economic incuriousness, though disappointing in
itself, also allows him to focus on his strongest suit: attacking Do-
nald Trump. At his intermittent best, Mr Biden offers a powerful
critique of the president’s behaviour. He marvels, as if briefly hor-
ror-stricken, at “the language the president uses, the way he refers
to people...It’s so degrading.” The fact that Mr Biden and Mr Trump
are close in age lends an air of authority to such denunciations. So
does the fact that the president plainly fears him—or else why did
he try to nobble him in Ukraine?
So, too, does the contrast with Mr Trump that such criticisms
raise. Though rather sanctimonious, Mr Biden is rightly known for
civility and patience. He has never been called a scoundrel. And if
those qualities seem less decisive when Mr Biden is seen up close,
only Iowans and New Hampshirites will get the chance to do so.
The gaffe-obsessed media should not discount how far Mr Trump
has lowered the presidential bar. That Mr Biden is decent and pre-
sumably has some idea how to do the job could yet be enough. 7Lexington The stickiness of Joe Biden
The former vice-president is dated, gaffe-prone but still well placed to take on Donald Trump