The Economist 07Dec2019

The EconomistDecember 7th 2019 The Americas 49

2

Bello The difficulties of Jair López Obrador

T

o all appearancesthey are oppo-

sites and foes. Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro

is a foul-mouthed former army captain

of the hard right. Mexico’s Andrés Ma-

nuel López Obrador is a would-be revolu-

tionary of the left. Mr Bolsonaro appeals

to the worst in Brazilians, with his dia-

tribes against women and gays, casual

racism and fondness for guns and chop-

ping down the Amazon’s trees. Mr López

Obrador (known as amlo) invokes the

noble purpose of making Mexico fairer

and less unequal. Yet for all their differ-

ences, the two most important presi-

dents in Latin America are strikingly

similar in many ways. After roughly a

year in office, each faces difficulties.

Both are reactionaries in the purest

sense, conjuring up an imagined golden

past. Mr Bolsonaro lionises Brazil’s

military dictatorship of 1964-85. amlo,

who stresses that he is a democrat, be-

lieves that everything was better in Mexi-

co before a turn to “neoliberalism” in the

1980s. Both are nationalists with little

interest in the outside world and would

rather the outside world reciprocated.

They are believers, and have inserted

religion into the political discourse of

hitherto secular states. Mr Bolsonaro, a

Pentecostal protestant, campaigned on

the slogan “Brazil above all, God above

everyone”. amloimplicitly compares

himself to Christ, who was “sacrificed

...for defending the poor”. Both defend

traditional family values, though they

see different threats to them: left-wing

political correctness in Mr Bolsonaro’s

case, neoliberalism for amlo. Although

Mr Bolsonaro, whose cabinet is stuffed

with officers, more obviously relies on

military help, amlohas also bolstered

the army’s role. He called it “the people,

in uniform” and put a retired general in

charge of a new National Guard.

Neither has much respect for the sep-

aration of powers. During Mr Bolsonaro’s

election campaign one of his sons,

Eduardo, said it would take only “a soldier

and a corporal” to close the supreme court.

Both Eduardo and Paulo Guedes, the econ-

omy minister, have mused about reviving

a1-5, a decree under which the dictatorship

suspended freedoms and purged congress.

In Mexico amlo’s government strong-

armed a supreme-court justice into resign-

ing. His critics fear that he will take control

of the electoral authority when new mem-

bers are chosen next year. Both men dis-

like ngos, which they see as meddlers. Mr

Bolsonaro has made preposterous claims

that ngos (and Leonardo DiCaprio, an

American film star) were behind fires in

the Amazon. amlocancelled government

funding to outfits providing child care and

fighting people-trafficking.

Both presidents were elected on similar

promises: to revive their economies and,

by force of will, eliminate corruption and

crime. They are going about these tasks

differently, and with varying success. The

efforts of Mr Bolsonaro’s economic team to

shrink unsustainable fiscal commit-

ments have found support in congress,

despite the president rather than be-

cause of him. The economy grew by 0.6%

in the third quarter compared with the

second. Mexico had a solid fiscal posi-

tion. But amlointroduced his own ver-

sion of austerity, cutting government

salaries and what he sees as waste. He

and private business are suspicious of

each other. Mexico’s economy has sunk

into a mild recession.

On crime, Mr Bolsonaro can be

blamed for a rise in killings by police,

which he has encouraged. He can take

little credit for a sharp fall in overall

murders this year, which began before he

took office and owes much to the end of a

vendetta between drug syndicates. amlo

has even less to crow about: Mexico’s

murder rate continues to rise, with mas-

sacres by drug gangs almost every

month. His policy of “hugs, not bullets”,

of helping unemployed young people,

shows no sign of working. He has failed

to strengthen corruption-fighting in-

stitutions. Mr Bolsonaro’s government

has tried to block an investigation that

has revealed links between his sons and

paramilitary militias in Rio de Janeiro.

What really unites these seemingly

contrasting presidents is that both are

populists. They see themselves as sav-

iours, and claim a special bond with “the

people”. Measured by popularity, amlois

the winner. His approval rating is 68%

compared with 42% for Mr Bolsonaro.

How long will that last? Mr Bolsonaro,

who has outsourced economic policy to

Mr Guedes, knows what he doesn’t know,

while amlothinks he knows better than

anyone else. Brazil has more checks on

presidential power than does Mexico.

That means amlohas nobody else to

blame as things start going wrong.

The surprising similarities between the presidents of Brazil and Mexico

of escaped slaves. In 1986 the army massa-

cred 39 people in the home village of the

Maroons’ leader. Democracy was restored

in 1991, under a coalition of parties that had

not taken part in the war.

In 2000 a newly elected government set

in motion a magistrate’s inquiry into the

murders of 1982, just ahead of the deadline

set by the statute of limitations. Mr Bou-

terse and 25 others, mostly army officers,

were indicted in 2004. He accepted politi-

cal responsibility for the murders but has

never admitted guilt. Since a Dutch court

convicted him of trafficking cocaine in

1999 he has avoided visiting or even pass-

ing through the Netherlands, where he

could be arrested.

Surinamese overlook his chequered

reputation. A charismatic strongman with

a jokey man-of-the-people style, Mr Bou-

terse outshines rival politicians. The eth-

nic tensions that sparked the civil war no

longer define politics.

Mr Bouterse says he will be a candidate

in the legislative election, due to be held in

May. The president is elected indirectly, ei-

ther by a two-thirds majority of the legisla-

ture or, if that fails, by a simple majority of

a “united people’s assembly”, composed of

all elected national and local representa-

tives. Mr Bouterse can probably extend his

hold on power, if he wants to.

That would alarm democrats. They wor-

ry that part of the money from China will

pay for a “safe city” project, which includes

technology to track licence plates, and a fa-

cial-recognition surveillance system. But

at 74 Mr Bouterse is showing his age. He

may step aside for Mr Adhin or someone

younger. If he decides to run, he is more

likely to serve a third five-year term as pres-

ident than a 20-year murder sentence. 7