The EconomistDecember 7th 2019 511T
he tombof a dead Shia cleric might
seem an odd target for Iraqi protesters
angry about corruption, poor governance
and a lack of jobs. Muhammad Baqr al-Ha-
kim resisted Saddam Hussein, Iraq’s old
dictator, and helped to create the modern
state. But he also had close ties to Iran,
which has assisted the Iraqi government in
trying to subdue the protesters. Such med-
dling enrages Iraqis, who threw petrol
bombs at Hakim’s shrine—and the Iranian-
backed militiamen guarding it—earlier
this month in Najaf. They also torched the
nearby Iranian consulate.
Iraq has been rocked by protests since
October. Hundreds of thousands of people
have taken to the streets in Baghdad and
the Shia south. Officials have promised re-
forms. The security forces have fired on the
demonstrators, killing more than 400. Nei-
ther concessions nor repression have
worked. Things came to a head on Novem-
ber 29th, when the senior Shia cleric, Grand
Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, called for a change
of government. In response, Adel Abdul-
Mahdi, Iraq’s prime minister, said he
would step down.
But the protesters and the ruling elite
know that Mr Abdul-Mahdi’s departure is
not the endgame. Rather, it is likely to mark
the start of a new, potentially more violent
struggle over what comes next for the gov-
ernment. It will probably lead to even
greater involvement by Iran.Street sweepers
For now Mr Abdul-Mahdi remains in his
job. The Shia warlords-cum-politicians
who are Iraq’s real power-brokers will
choose his successor, with input from Iran.
Many of them want the next prime minis-
ter to be more ruthless. Hadi al-Amari and
Qais Khazali claim to head the largest bloc
in parliament and control powerful mili-
tias. They work with Qassem Suleimani,
the commander of the Quds Force, the for-
eign legion of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps. All want to spread Shia influ-
ence across the region, and view the prot-
ests as a threat. Some of their allies favourclearing the streets by force.
Sunni and Kurdish parties, like their
Shia counterparts, plunder the state and
are thus loth to speak up for the protesters
and upset the status quo. The constitution
suggests that President Barham Salih, a
Sunni Kurd, should have assumed the
prime minister’s responsibilities follow-
ing Mr Abdul-Mahdi’s resignation. But he
has said little since calling for the prosecu-
tion of those who killed protesters, and is
facing threats himself. Muqtada al-Sadr, a
rabble-rousing Shia cleric who heads a
large bloc in parliament, also seems muz-
zled. He has spent long stints in Iran—un-
der a form of house arrest, say some.
Iraq’s other institutions have fallen into
line. Judges sentence protesters under
anti-terror laws. The communications
ministry shuts down the internet to make
it harder for them to organise. The security
forces have so far limited their use of vio-
lence—but only, it seems, to avoid a more
forceful response from the West (or the
clerics). That does not appear to be coming.
A resolution condemning the govern-
ment’s brutality would be unlikely to pass
in the unSecurity Council. America has
told the Iraqi government to listen to the
protesters and make reforms. But it too is
reluctant to get more involved.
The protesters are calling for an entirely
new government, a fairer electoral law and
early elections. They want to put politi-
cians on trial for corruption and the recentArab unrest
The fight for Iraq’s future
Politicians backed by Iran are clinging to power in Iraq, but the protesters
are not giving in
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