The Washington Post - 19.03.2020

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A26 eZ re THE WASHINGTON POST.THURSDAy, MARCH 19 , 2020


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T


HERE IS no point in denying reality, which
has become clear with frightening speed: T he
U. S. and global economies have gone from
fairly robust stability to free fall. There is hope
that public health measures may succeed in halting
the virus, the downward slide may be arrested — and
normal activity may be restored — w ithin a relatively
short period. Meanwhile, however, the watchword of
public and private institutions in financial matters
must be forbearance.
T o the e xtent possible, households and businesses,
especially the poorest of the former and the smallest
of the latter, should be allowed to postpone payments
that would otherwise be due. As financial expert
Mohamed A. El-Erian puts it in a sobering new
Foreign Affairs article, generous forbearance can
help “prevent liquidity problems from becoming
solvency ones.”
The Trump a dministration h as already a nnounced
a 90-day interest- and penalty-free delay in federal
income tax payments, along with suspension of stu-

dent loan interest payments. The Federal Housing
Finance Agency (FHFA) contributed Wednesday by
instructing the two mortgage-finance agencies it
regulates, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, to suspend
foreclosures and evictions for at least 60 days on the
$5.5 trillion worth of mortgages they back, equal to
nearly half the market. Importantly, this could bene-
fit both homeowners and rental tenants i n multifami-
ly buildings backed by Fannie and Freddie.
The FHFA previously instructed Fannie and Fred-
die to extend up to 12 months’ worth of mortgage
postponement to borrowers s uffering hardship r elat-
ed to the coronavirus. That is not everyone: Borrow-
ers who retain the wherewithal to meet their obliga-
tions can and should be encouraged and incentivized
to do so, in order t o husband public resources for the
benefit of those who need them most. And many
details of the FHFA’s directives remain to be worked
out.
The general idea, however, is sound: B y stabilizing
family finances a t their essential p oints of v ulnerabil-

ity — monthly mortgage and rent payments — for-
bearance will free up families’ cash for other needs,
such as utilities and food. O bviously, this is not a total
solution for those living paycheck to paycheck, much
less those living in poverty. Still, it is worth noting that
the bulk of American households are in far better
financial shape at the outset of this crisis than they
were just prior to the Great Recession. Overall, Ameri-
can households have positive net worth. Household
debt service as a percent of disposable income stood
at 9.7 percent as of October 2019, compared with
13.2 percent in January 2008. This year began with
only 3.5 percent of all mortgaged properties worth
less than their outstanding loan balances, according
to CoreLogic; at the height of the Great Recession in
late 2 009, some 26 percent were underwater.
Ordinary people and small businesses will need to
stretch whatever modest equity and reserves they
may have accumulated to get through this crisis. It is
in everyone’s interest — including their own — for
government and creditors to help them do it.

Give them a break


Why debt forbearance during the pandemic is in everyone’s interest.


E


LECTIONS IN the United States have tradi-
tionally been marked by vigorous get-out-the-
vote campaigns by candidates who leave no
stone unturned in the effort to get voters to the
polls. But that was not so on Tuesday amid escalating
concerns about the novel coronavirus and warnings
from public health experts about the danger of public
gatherings. “Going to the polls amid the coronavirus
outbreak is a personal decision,” Sen. Bernie Sanders
(I-Vt.) tweeted on Tuesday as his presidential cam-
paign dropped typical get-out-the-vote activities. “ We
respect whichever choice voters m ake.”
Americans should not have to choose between
their personal health and that of the country’s de-
mocracy. The abrupt cancellation of Ohio’s primary
on the eve of Tuesday’s election, voting problems in
the three states that pressed ahead and the decision
by five other states to postpone future primaries
underscored the need — indeed, the urgency — for
measures that will ensure that everyone who wants
to cast a ballot in this fall’s elections can do so
without a risk to health.
Foremost among these should be expanding the
ability of people to vote early and to vote by mail.
Indeed, the recent primaries demonstrated how suc-
cessful these reforms have been. Washington, a state
hit h ard and early b y the c oronavirus epidemic, didn’t
have to wrestle with issues of public safety for voters
because its March 10 primary was conducted com-
pletely, and without problems, by mail. Despite wor-
ries about the coronavirus that surrounded Tuesday’s
primaries, Arizona a nd Florida had l arger turnouts i n
the Democratic contests than in 2016 because they
allowed — and people took advantage of — early
voting.
Changes in election procedures, election officials
warn, require a lot of preparation, so time and
resources are needed for proper planning and execu-
tion. This is particularly true of vote-by-mail opera-
tions; if not done correctly, they can create a whole

new set of problems, including even the possible
disenfranchisement of voters. States that have “no
excuse” absentee voting are in a better position to
expand their operations, and they should not wait.
Congress should act on legislation proposed by
Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Ron Wyden
(D-Ore.) that would require no-excuse absentee vot-
ing while the public health crisis persists, with the
effort f unded by the f ederal g overnment.

We, li ke e veryone else, h ope that b y the t ime voters
go to the polls in less than eight months for the
general election, the worst of the coronavirus crisis
will be behind u s and l ife will have r eturned t o normal
or something close to it. But that — as experts have
warned — m ay n ot be the case. What is at s take Nov. 3
— the presidency, control of Congress and the future
of the country — is too important to be left to mere
hope and chance.

It’s time to change


our elections


Absentee voting must include
everyone while this crisis lasts.

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The Uptown Theater is a treasure worth keeping
after AMC stops using it at the end of this month [“A
screen gem fades into history as Uptown closes,”
Metro, March 14]. O ne solution t hat comes t o mind is
a District-wide effort to raise the funding required to
persuade the American Film Institute in Silver
Spring to lease it for its fourth screen. Another
possible lessee is the Library of Congress, which
maintains its film archive a nd large-screen theater in
Culpeper, Va., but could have a second large screen in
the District. Maybe the two institutions could jointly
use the Uptown Theater.
Any solution could be more sustainable in combi-
nation with alterations creating t he kind o f attractive
dining and drinking venue that has successfully
drawn large audiences in other cities and countries.
Lex Rieffel , Washington

The Uptown could use a new premiere


Questions have not been answered regarding the
coronavirus outbreak in the United States. Why have
we not seen and heard public service announce-
ments on television and radio? Remember Smokey
Bear; “Only you can prevent forest fires”? The PSA
was clear, trusted and effective. One of the most
vulnerable groups is those over age 60. How many
80- and 90-year-olds surf the Internet vs. how many
watch television and listen to the radio? Govern-
ment, radio and television media must reach vulner-
able audiences.
Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Insti-
tute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the
National Institutes of Health, testified that coronavi-
rus testing has been “a failing.” He further acknowl-
edged that the United States “is not set up” to test
like other countries. If the United States is (or was)
not set up, especially given the initial test rollout
debacle, then why not use the test that all those
other countries have been using until we are fully set
up?
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
criteria prevented test access requested by doctors
for their patients. Criteria are supposed to help
identify those who really need the test and minimize
false alarms. Why did the CDC not follow the
reported disease spread and react responsibly?
Mark Czarnolewski , Silver Spring

The March 16 news article “Abrupt new
screenings cause long airport lines, opposite of
social distancing” painted an entirely accurate
picture of the chaos and ineptitude experienced by
passengers arriving at U.S. airports.
My wife and I arrived from Madrid at Newark
International on Saturday night. Although we had
expected some delays — and certainly understand
the need to protect the country — what transpired
was simply madness, with procedures seemingly
unrelated to combating the spread of covid-19. For
example, after a Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention “screening” and several hours in line, we
presented our passports in the normal manner. They
were scanned and then held by Customs and Border
Protection for a “secondary screening.” Along with
hundreds of other passengers, and with no explana-
tion, we were crowded into a holding area. More
than an hour later, the passports were returned to us
and we were allowed to leave.
I asked the CBP officer what information could
the CBP possibly glean from our passports alone
after they had already been screened by the original
CBP officer. The non-answer was straight out of a
“Dilbert” cartoon. Ta ke my temperature? Of course.
Have me fill out a medical/health form and provide
contact information? Sure. But take my passport
from me with no explanation and seemingly without
any apparent connection to the covid-19 crisis?
If what we witnessed that night is any indication
of the government’s response to covid-19, be afraid.
Be very afraid.
P eter J. Levine , Potomac

Looks as though no one in a position of power
in the Trump administration has ever been on a
commercial international flight. Travelers fill out
the agriculture product/farm visit and money trans-
fer paperwork during the flight and hand it in as
they go through Customs and Border Protection.
Similarly, new travel location and wellness forms
should be completed either while waiting to board
or during the flight. With today’s technology, the
forms could be uploaded easily into a database
either pre-board or during the flight and be sorted
and analyzed during the flight.
People who need further screening on landing,
based on that database, could deplane first and go t o
a special area for follow-up, while those who do not
need further health screening could follow the
existing procedure.
What’s so hard about that?
And the Trump administration has had weeks to
work out the technical details. On an emergency
basis, airport operations management could figure
out the ground plan for their own airport in a few
days!
Jean Mammen , Washington

In a time such as this , when leadership is all the
more important, some say government is all the
same and it doesn’t matter who is there. Ye t it does
matter. It has always mattered. Now it is even more
important. The decisions being made will mean the
difference between life and death.
Maryland is fortunate in its leadership in two
ways.
Its governor, Larry Hogan (R), listens to knowl-
edgeable advisers while being respectful of the
science behind the recommendations.
The state’s leadership is making decisions that
result in the recommendations and concordant
implementations that will help ensure our safety.
The point person in Maryland is Secretary of Health
Robert R. Neall.
From all indications and given the history of the
novel coronavirus around the world, there will be
deaths related to these decisions. The challenge:
determine which decisions will result in fewer —
rather than more — deaths. Each decision may well
have unfortunate t rade-offs, and I am sure each
decision will weigh heavily on him.
The people of Maryland should be confident in
the state’s leadership responding to this threat.
Robert Agee , Crofton

What is the government doing?


W


HEN THE novel coronavirus infection
advances through the b ody in m ore severe
cases, t he lungs b egin to fill w ith f luid and
breathing becomes difficult. In a hospital
intensive care unit, life-saving ventilators can help a
patient survive b y pumping oxygen into t he i mpaired
lungs. But what if thousands more people need
hospital beds and ventilators than are available?
That is the nightmare scenario facing the United
States and other nations in the pandemic. In Italy,
doctors are having to make painful choices about
which patients get treatment. President Trump told
governors in a conference call on Monday morning,
“Respirators, ventilators, all of the equipment — try
getting it yourselves. We will be backing you, but try
getting it yourselves. Point of sales, much better,
much more direct i f you can get it yourself.”
That was shortsighted. The federal government
ought to be doing everything in its power to make
sure the worst-case scenario does not happen. To m
Inglesby, director of the Johns Hopkins Center for
Health Security, has proposed that the United States
“needs a wartime mobilization” t o boost the s upply o f

ventilators. We’d settle for even a decent peacetime
mobilization. On Wednesday, Mr. Trump took a wel-
come step in that direction, invoking the Defense
Production A ct, which allows him to order companies
to shift production toward essential items in a crisis.
We h ope he will u se it robustly.
Whether the worst case will happen is not yet
known. But a n epidemiological study p ublished Mon-
day by Imperial College, L ondon, focusing on Britain
and the United States, makes the point that all the
non-pharmaceutical measures now being proposed
— social distancing of the entire population, case
isolation, household quarantine if one m ember is sick
and school closures, a so-called suppression strategy
— will have to be undertaken to reduce the stress on
hospitals. If a less intense strategy is followed, the
study warns, it would r esult in a n “8-fold higher peak
demand on critical care beds over and above the
available surge capacity” in both Britain and the
United S tates.
Hospital b eds are a major worry. I n another study,
published in pre-print and not yet peer-reviewed,
Eric S. To ner of the Bloomberg School of Public

Health at Johns Hopkins and colleagues calculated
that, u sing data from t he W uhan, C hina, outbreak, the
demand for critical-care treatment at the peak of the
pandemic m ight b e 259 people per million. Excluding
the Department of Ve terans Affairs system, there are
46,500 medical i ntensive care unit b eds in the United
States, or 178 per million, with 70 to 80 percent of
them already o ccupied on any given day. Without any
changes, that means that in an average metropolitan
area of 1 million, there are only 36 to 53 e mpty, s taffed
intensive care beds t o meet a need t hat might b e 259.
T o alleviate the shortage, hospitals will have to take
drastic rationing action, postpone other treatments
and seek a dditional space. And even then i t is not clear
there will be sufficient capacity. In the case of ventila-
tors, too, there are 62,000 immediately available and
99,000 that could be pulled out in an emergency,
according to Forbes. But that might still not be suffi-
cient, depending on the size of the pandemic.
By acting n ow, we may avert a hospital catastrophe.
But that likely will require Mr. Trump to use the legal
authority he invoked to add supplies through war-
time-style m obilization. “Do i t yourself” w on’t d o.

The nightmare scenario for U.S. hospitals


An all-out mobilization is needed to head off a shortage of ventilators and ICU beds.


ABCDE


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eDItorIAls

tom toles

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George F. Will, in his March 15 op-ed, “Upward
mobility lives on,” wrote so cleverly that it would
seem that wages have increased by some 21 to
34 percent since 1973. He didn’t seem to
make it clear what inflation has been
during that time and whether that means
an improvement of one’s standard of
living. He gave figures for how people’s
income has increased and their net value
has increased.
When I retired in 2017, I was making
four times what my father was when he
retired 41 years earlier. Ye t my s tandard of
living and quality of life are no better than
his. Yes, my house is slightly larger, but it
required two incomes to buy, not the one income my
parents had. And my daughter, making $60,000 a
year, qualified for a rental assistance studio apart-

ment in Fairfax County in 2018.
M r. Will didn’t even mention people trying to live
on the minimum wage. According to Common
Dreams, the minimum wage today would
have to be close to $12 an hour, not $7.25,
just to be equivalent. And until 1968,
minimum wage kept pace with productiv-
ity g rowth; if it had continued to do that,
the minimum wage today would be more
than $24 an hour.
Here’s a challenge for Mr. Will: Live on
the minimum wage for six months, in-
cluding finding a place to live that you can
afford on minimum wage. I’ll even spot
him $500 so he has something to live on
until his first paycheck. Then tell me how great
things are for the average person in this country.
Melissa Yorks , Gaithersburg

Try this: Live on the minimum wage


DanIel acKer/bloomberg
A Dollar Tree
in Chicago.
Free download pdf