The Rules of Contagion

(Greg DeLong) #1

number of factors – in our backgrounds, in our lifestyles, in our social
interactions – that can increase the risk of an outbreak.[9]
Another notable feature of disease outbreaks is that cases tend to
cluster together in a certain location, with infections appearing over a
short period of time. Think about that cholera outbreak in Broad
Street, with cases clustered around the pump. We can find similar
patterns when looking at violent acts. For centuries, people have
reported localised clusters of self-harm and suicide: in schools, in
prisons, in communities.[10] However, clustering of suicides doesn’t
necessarily mean contagion is happening.[11] As we saw with social
contagion, people may behave in the same way for another reason,
like some shared feature of their environment. One way to exclude
this possibility is to look at the aftermath of high-profile deaths; a
member of the public is more likely to hear about the suicide of a
well-known person than the other way around. In 1974, David Phillips
published a landmark paper examining media coverage of suicides.
He found that when British and American newspapers ran a front-
page story about a suicide, the number of such deaths in the local
area tended to increase immediately afterwards.[12] Subsequent
studies have found similar patterns with media reports, suggesting
that suicide can be transmitted.[13] In response, have published
guidelines for responsible reporting of suicides. Media outlets should
provide information about where to seek help, while avoiding
sensational headlines, details about the method involved, and
suggestions that the suicide was a solution to a problem.
Unfortunately, outlets often ignore these guidelines. Researchers
at Columbia University noted a 10 per cent rise in suicides in the
months following the death of comedian Robin Williams.[14] They
pointed to a potential contagion effect, given that many media reports
about Williams’ death did not follow guidelines, and the largest
increase in suicides occurred in middle-aged men using the same
method as Williams. There can be a similar effect with mass
shootings; one study estimated that for every ten US mass shootings,
there are two additional shootings as a result of social contagion.[15]


Because there is often an immediate rise in suicides and shootings
following such media reports, it suggests that the delay between one

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