The Rules of Contagion

(Greg DeLong) #1

funded studies found that having a gun in the home increased the risk
of homicide and suicide. The latter finding was particularly notable,
given that around two-thirds of gun deaths in the US are from suicide.
Opponents of this research have argued that such suicides might
have occurred anyway, even if guns hadn’t been present.[48] But
easy access to deadly methods can make a difference for what are
often impulse decisions. In 1998, the UK switched from selling
paracetamol in bottles to blister packs containing up to thirty-two
tablets. The extra effort involved with blister packs seemed to deter
people; in the decade after the packs were introduced, there was
about a 40 per cent reduction in deaths from paracetamol overdoses.
[49]
Unless we understand where the risk lies, it’s very difficult to do
anything about it. This is why research into violence is needed.
Seemingly obvious interventions may turn out to have little effect in
reality. Likewise, there may be policies – like Cure Violence – that
challenge existing approaches, but have the potential to reduce gun-
related deaths. ‘Like motor vehicle injuries, violence exists in a cause-
and-effect world; things happen for predictable reasons,’ wrote
Dickey and Rosenberg in 2012.[50] ‘By studying the causes of a
tragic – but not senseless – event, we can help prevent another.’
It’s not just gun violence that we need to understand. So far, we’ve
looked at frequently occurring events like shootings and domestic
violence, which means there is – in theory, at least – a lot of data to
study. But sometimes crime and violence happen as a one-off event,
spreading rapidly through a population with devastating
consequences.


O 6 August 2011, London descended
into what would become the first of five nights of looting, arson and
violence. Two days earlier, police had shot and killed a suspected
gang member in Tottenham, North London, sparking protests that
evolved into riots and spread across the city. There would also be
rioting in other UK cities, from Birmingham to Manchester.


Crime researcher Toby Davies was living in the London district of
Brixton at the time.[51] Although Brixton avoided the violence on the

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