dynamics in terrorist groups could explain why large attacks are so
much less frequent than smaller ones.[57]
Although Johnson’s study of Islamic State activity aimed to
understand the ecosystem of extremism – how groups form, grow,
and dissipate – the media preferred to focus on whether it could
accurately predict attacks. Unfortunately, predictions are probably still
beyond the reach of such methods. But at least it was possible to see
what the underlying methods were. According to J.M. Berger, a fellow
at George Washington University who researches extremism, it’s rare
to see such transparent analysis of terrorism. ‘There are a lot of
companies that claim to be able to do what this study is claiming,’ he
told the New York Times after the study was published, ‘and a lot of
those companies seem to me to be selling snake oil.’[58]
P . It’s not just a matter of
anticipating the timing of a terrorist attack; governments also have to
consider the method that may be used, and the potential impact that
method will have. In the weeks following the 9/11 attacks in 2001,
several people in the US media and Congress received letters
containing toxic anthrax bacteria. It led to five deaths, raising
concerns that other bioterrorist attacks may follow.[59] One of the top
threats was thought to be smallpox. Despite having been eradicated
in the wild, samples of the virus were still stored in two government
labs, one in the US and one in Russia. What if other, unreported,
smallpox viruses were out there and fell into the wrong hands?
Using mathematical models, several research groups tried to
estimate what might happen if terrorists released the virus into a
human population. Most concluded that an outbreak would grow
quickly unless pre-emptive control measures were in place. Soon
after, the US Government decided to offer half a million healthcare
workers vaccination against the virus. There was limited enthusiasm
for the plan: by the end of 2003, fewer than 40,000 workers had
opted for the vaccine.
In 2006, Ben Cooper, then a mathematical modeller at the UK
Health Protection Agency, wrote a high-profile paper critiquing the
approaches used to assess the smallpox risk. He titled it ‘Poxy