health methods can help, suggests epidemiologist Melissa Tracy,
because researchers have experience analysing long-term
conditions. ‘That’s the strength of epidemiology, bringing that life
course perspective.’
U to prevent crime would be hugely
cost-effective, both in the US and elsewhere. Adding together the
social, economic and judicial consequences of the average US
murder, one study put the cost of a single killing at over $10m.[96]
The problem is that the most effective solutions may not be those that
people are most comfortable with. Do we want to feel like we’re
punishing bad people, or do we want less crime? ‘When it comes to
behavior change, threats and punishment are just not that effective,’
said Charlie Ransford of Cure Violence. Although punishment might
have some impact, Ransford suggests that other approaches
generally work better. ‘What is ultimately most effective at changing a
person’s behavior is when you try to sit down and try to listen to them
and hear them out, let them air their grievances and really try to
understand them,’ he said. ‘And then try to guide them to a healthier
way of behaving.’
Projects like Cure Violence have historically focused on in-person
interactions, but online social contacts are increasingly influencing the
spread of violence as well. ‘The environment has changed,’ Ransford
said. ‘You need to make an adjustment. Now we’re hiring workers
who specialise in combing through social media to look for conflicts
that need to be responded to.’
When dealing with crime and violence, it helps to understand how
people are linked together. The same is true of outbreaks; we’ve seen
how real-life contacts can drive contagion ranging from smoking and
yawning to infectious diseases and innovation. But the strength of
influence online won’t necessarily be the same as face-to-face
encounters. ‘If you think about contagion of views about acceptability
of violence,’ said Watts, ‘the reach may be much larger, but the
number of people who act might be smaller.’
It’s a problem that a lot of industries are interested in. However,
they generally aren’t so interested in controlling contagion. When it