The Rules of Contagion

(Greg DeLong) #1
9 Months of the Epidemic and Forward Projections’, The New
England Journal of Medicine (NEJM), 2014.


  1. ‘Ransomware cyber-attack: Who has been hardest hit?’, BBC
    News Online, 15 May 2017; ‘What you need to know about the
    WannaCry Ransomware’, Symantec Blogs, 23 October 2017.
    Exploit attempts increased from 2000 to 80000 in 7 hours,
    implying doubling time = 7/log 2 (80000/2000) = 1.32 hours.

  2. Media Metrics #6: The Video Revolution. The Progress &
    Freedom Foundation Blog, 2 March 2008.
    http://blog.pff.org/archives/2008/03/print/005037.html. Adoption
    went from 2.2% of homes in 1981 to 18% homes in 1985,
    implying doubling time = 365 × 4/log 2 (0.18/0.02) = 481 days.

  3. Etymologia: influenza. Emerging Infectious Diseases 12(1):179,
    2006.

    1. A theory of happenings



  4. Dumas A., The Count of Monte Cristo (1844–46), Chapter 117.

  5. Kucharski A.J. et al., ‘Using paired serology and surveillance
    data to quantify dengue transmission and control during a large
    outbreak in Fiji’, eLIFE, 2018.

  6. Pastula D.M. et al., ‘Investigation of a Guillain-Barré syndrome
    cluster in the Republic of Fiji’, Journal of the Neurological
    Sciences, 2017; Musso D. et al., ‘Rapid spread of emerging Zika
    virus in the Pacific area’, Clinical Microbiology and Infection,
    2014; Sejvar J.J. et al., ‘Population incidence of Guillain-Barré
    syndrome: a systematic review and meta-analysis’,
    Neuroepidemiology, 2011.

  7. Willison H.J. et al., ‘Guillain-Barré syndrome’, The Lancet, 2016.

  8. Kron J., ‘In a Remote Ugandan Lab, Encounters With the Zika
    Virus and Mosquitoes Decades Ago’, New York Times, 5 April
    2016.

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