used to study spinal fluids. He was working alone in Edinburgh’s
Royal College of Physicians Laboratory that evening, and would
eventually spend two months in hospital with his injuries. The
accident left the 26-year-old Kermack completely blind.[34]
During his stay in hospital, Kermack asked friends and nurses to
read mathematics to him. Knowing that he could no longer see, he
wanted to practise getting information another way. He had an
exceptional memory and would work through mathematical problems
in his head. ‘It was incredible to find how much he could do without
being able to put anything down on paper,’ remarked William McCrea,
one of his colleagues.
After leaving hospital, Kermack continued to work in science but
shifted his focus to other topics. He left his chemical experiments
behind, and began to develop new projects. In particular, he started
to work on mathematical questions with Anderson McKendrick, who
had risen to become head of the Edinburgh laboratory. Having served
in India for almost two decades, McKendrick had left the Indian
Medical Service in 1920 and moved to Scotland with his family.
Together, the pair extended Ross’s ideas to look at epidemics in
general. They focused their attention on one of the most important
questions in infectious disease research: what causes epidemics to
end? The pair noted that there were two popular explanations at the
time. Either transmission ceased because there were no susceptible
people left to infect, or because the pathogen itself became less
infectious as the epidemic progressed. It would turn out that, in most
situations, neither explanation was correct.[35]
Like Ross, Kermack and McKendrick started by developing a
mathematical model of disease transmission. For simplicity, they
assumed the population mixed randomly in their model. Like marbles
being shaken in a jar, everyone in the population has an equal
chance of meeting everyone else. In the model, the epidemic sparks
with a certain number of infectious people, and everyone else
susceptible to infection. Once someone has recovered from infection,
they are immune to the disease. We can therefore put the population
into one of three groups, based on their disease status: