The Rules of Contagion

(Greg DeLong) #1
England and Wales: interrupted time series analyses’, British
Medical Journal, 2013.


  1. Dickey J. and Rosenberg M., ‘We won’t know the cause of gun
    violence until we look for it’, Washington Post, 27 July 2012.

  2. Background and quotes from author interview with Toby Davies,
    August 2017.

  3. Davies T.P. et al., ‘A mathematical model of the London riots
    and their policing’, Scientific Reports, 2013.

  4. Example: Myers P., ‘Staying streetwise’, Reuters, 8 September
    2011.

  5. Quoted in: De Castella T. and McClatchey C., ‘UK riots: What
    turns people into looters?’, BBC News Online. 9 August 2011.

  6. Granovetter M., ‘Threshold Models of Collective Behavior’,
    American Journal of Sociology, 1978.

  7. Background from: Johnson N.F. et al., ‘New online ecology of
    adversarial aggregates: ISIS and beyond’, Science, 2016;
    Wolchover N., ‘A Physicist Who Models ISIS and the Alt-Right’,
    Quanta Magazine, 23 August 2017.

  8. Bohorquez J.C. et al., ‘Common ecology quantifies human
    insurgency’, Nature, 2009.

  9. Belluck P., ‘Fighting ISIS With an Algorithm, Physicists Try to
    Predict Attacks’, New York Times, 16 June 2016.

  10. Timeline: ‘How The Anthrax Terror Unfolded’, National Public
    Radio (NPR), 15 February 2011.

  11. Cooper B., ‘Poxy models and rash decisions’, PNAS, 2006;
    Meltzer M.I. et al., ‘Modeling Potential Responses to Smallpox as
    a Bioterrorist Weapon’, Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2001.

  12. I’ve seen the toy train example used in a few fields (e.g. by
    Emanuel Derman in finance), but particular credit to my old
    colleague Ken Eames here, who used it very effectively in
    disease modelling lectures.

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