The Rules of Contagion

(Greg DeLong) #1

  1. Widely attributed, but no clear primary source.

  2. By early December, the average reporting delay was 2–3 days.
    Source: Finger F. et al., ‘Real-time analysis of the diphtheria
    outbreak in forcibly displaced Myanmar nationals in Bangladesh’,
    BMC Medicine, 2019.

  3. Statistics from: Katz J. and Sanger-Katz M., ‘“The Numbers Are
    So Staggering.” Overdose Deaths Set a Record Last Year’, New
    York Times, 29 November 2018; Ahmad F.B. et al., ‘Provisional
    drug overdose death counts’, National Center for Health
    Statistics, 2018; Felter C., ‘The U.S. Opioid Epidemic’, Council on
    Foreign Relations, 26 December 2017; ‘Opioid painkillers “must
    carry prominent warnings”’. BBC News Online, 28 April 2019.

  4. Goodnough A., Katz J. and Sanger-Katz M., ‘Drug Overdose
    Deaths Drop in U.S. for First Time Since 1990’, New York Times,
    17 July 2019.

  5. Background and quotes about opioid crisis analysis from author
    interview with Rosalie Liccardo Pacula, May 2018. Additional
    details from: Pacula R.L., Testimony presented before the House
    Appropriations Committee, Subcommittee on Labor, Health and
    Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies on April 5,
    2017.

  6. Exponential increase in death rate from 11 per 100,000 in 1979
    to 137 per 100,000 in 2015, implying doubling time =
    36/log 2 (137/11) = 10 years.

  7. Jalal H., ‘Changing dynamics of the drug overdose epidemic in
    the United States from 1979 through 2016’, Science, 2018.

  8. Mars S.G. ‘“Every ‘never’ I ever said came true”: transitions
    from opioid pills to heroin injecting’, International Journal of Drug
    Policy, 2014.

  9. TCR Staff, ‘America “Can’t Arrest Its Way Out of the Opioid
    Epidemic”’, The Crime Report, 16 February 2018.

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