of Innovations.[51] He noted that the initial adoption of new ideas and
products generally followed this shape. In the mid twentieth century,
the diffusion of products, like radios and refrigerators, all traced out
an S-curve; later on, televisions, microwave ovens and mobile
phones would do so as well.
According to Rogers, four different types of people are responsible
for the growth of a product: initial uptake comes from ‘innovators’,
followed by ‘early adopters’, then the majority of the population, and
finally ‘laggards’. His research into innovations mostly followed this
descriptive approach, starting with the S-curve and trying to find
possible explanations.
Ross had worked in the opposite direction. He’d used his
mechanistic reasoning to derive the curve from scratch, showing that
the spread of such happenings would inevitably lead to this pattern.
Ross’s model also gives us an explanation for why the adoption of
new ideas gradually slows down. As more people adopt, it becomes
harder and harder to meet someone who has not yet heard about the
idea. Although the overall number of adopters continues to grow,
there are fewer and fewer people adopting it at each point in time.
The number of new adoptions therefore begins to decline.
VCR ownership over time in the United States
Data: Consumer Electronics Association