The Week UK - 28.03.2020

Talking points NEWS 25

28 March 2020 THE WEEK

Death rates: astatistical mirage?

“Anythingcan happen,

but it usually doesn’t.”

RobertBenchley,quoted

on TheBrowser

“How foolish to think that

one caneverslam thedoor

in the faceofage. Much

wiser to bepolite and

gracious andask him to

lunch in advance.”

NoëlCoward, quoted

in Forbes

“When you growup, who

you were asateenagereither

takes onamythical

importanceorit’s

completely laughable.”

NovelistJulie Buntin,

quotedonShondaland.com

“Whatdo you call an

Instagram celebritywith

Covid-19?An influenzer.”

Joke quoted in TheTimes

“Laughteristhe best

medicine, peopleused to

say, which is handy, now

that youcan’t getaPanadol

for lovenormoney.”

Rebecca Nicholsonin

TheGuardian

“Happy endingscanspring

aleak/ ‘Everafter’ can

mean one week.”

Stephen Sondheim,quoted

in TheNewYorkTimes

“A mother’ slovefor her

child is like nothing else in

the world. It knows nolaw,

no pity.Itd ares al lthings

and crushesdown

remorselessly all that

standsin itspath.”

AgathaChristie, quoted

in The Times

“Justas there are no

atheists onasinking ship,

thereare no free-marketeers

in apandemic.”

Jonathan Freedland in

TheGuardian

“It’sgoingtobeaverylong
summer,”saidGabyHinsliff
inTheGuardian.Despiteits
earlierhopethatschool
closuresmightbeavoided,
theGovernmentlastweek
bowedtotheinevitable.
Hoursafteritwas
announcedthatScottish
andWelshschoolswould
beclosingattheendofthe
weektoslowthespreadof
thecoronavirusinfection,
theEducationSecretary,
GavinWilliamson,confirmedthatsome25,00 0
stateandprivateschoolsinEnglandwould
followsuit;schoolswouldremainopenonlyto
thechildrenofkeyworkersandtovulnerable
children.Withnoendtothecrisisinsight,
learningforthevastmajoritywouldnowtake
placeathome.Itwasanannouncement,said
TheSundayTimes,thatsentmorethanten
millionpupilsintheUKona“holidaytheydid
notexpect”.

Nodoubt the news wasa“sourceofunbridled
joy”tomanychildren,saidTonyParsonsin The
Sun.But noteveryone was celebrating.More
thanonemillionstudentswereduetotake
GCSEsor Alevelsthisyear, and withbothsets
of exams nowcancelled,manyhavebeenleft
“devastated”–as if“allthoseyearsofhard
grafthave been fornothing”.Forthosein
theirlast year,it maymean“noleavingparty.
Nochancetosay apropergoodbye” toold
friends,orbrilliant teachers.BorisJohnsonhas

saidnochildwillloseoutas

aresultoftheGovernment’s

decisiontoreplaceexams

withteacherassessments

–butI’mnotsosure,

saidKarenGlaserin

TheSpectator.It’swell-

knownthatprivate

schoolsroutinelyover-

predictthegradesoftheir

predominantlymiddle-

classpupils.AfterFriday’s

announcement,these

studentswillnowfare

“betterthanever”,attheexpenseoftherest.

Indeed,“economicinequalitywillbethebiggest

variablebetweentheexperiencesofchildren

overthenextfewmonths”,saidTheGuardian.

Forthemostpart,schoolisagreatleveller.

Whentheyarethere,mostpupilssharethe

samespace,lessonsandteachers.Butathome,

well-offchildrenliveinbiggerhouses,with

moresupportandbetteraccess totechnology

andbooks.Suchfactorscanonlywiden

divisions whichwe must besuretoaddress

when thingsget back tonormal.But fornow,

don’tunderestimatethepowerof“optimism,

actionandcollectiveendeavour”to helpus

throughthiscrisis,saidTheTimes.Young

people arealreadyleadingtheway,helping

their parents aroundthehouse, and using

online learningtofurthertheir own education

andskills.Thecomingvirus-dominatedspring

andsummerwillbe ahugeformativeexperience

forthem.“Itneednotbeanegativeon e.”

School’s out: an unexpected holiday

Readytostartlearningathome

Is theresomethingaboutbeing
Germanwhich protectsthebody
against Covid19?“Probably
not,Iwould guess,”saidRoss
Clarkin The Spectator.Inwhich
case,whyhasGermany,with
tensof thousandsofpeople
infectedbythedisease,suffered
onlyacouple ofhundred
deaths?TheofficialGerman
figuresshowacasefatality
rate from thediseaseof0.5%,
whil ethose from Italy show a
shockinglyhigh rate of around
9%. Britain,like China,seemstobesomewhere
in th emiddl e. Thisis, in part,justastatistical
mirage. Germanyhas testedvery large numbers
for infection;themore people aretested,the
more thenumber of cases increases,thus
reducingthe fatalityrate. Italy,by contrast,
thinks its realnumber of casesis aroundten
timesthe officialtally :morethan 600,000.

Italy appears to have suffered grievouslybecause
of itssocial“matrix”, saidVirginia Pietromarchi
on Al Jazeera. It ha sthe secondoldest
populationinthe world,after Japan; 85%
of those whohavediedhavebeenover 70.
In addition,elderly Italians tend to live and
socialise withthe younger generation, whoare

morelikely tosufferonly mild

symptoms,and spreadthe virus

totheirfamilies. Germanyhas

arelativelyoldpopulation,too,

saidPhilip OltermanninThe

Guardian.But,likemost

nationsthathavedealtwiththe

virus effectively–SouthKorea,

forinstance–ithas testedon

alarge scale and aggressively

tracedcontacts with infected

people. Germanyalso hasmore

than twiceItaly’snumberof

acute hospital bedsper capita.

Its hospitals“are not yet at full capacity” and

havehad more timetoprepare themselves.

The worry for Britain is that it is simply

followingItaly’supwardcurve atadistance,said

Ian Sample in the same paper. “Thedeath toll

in B ritain is roughly two weeks behindthat of

Italy.”In week ten of this year, ending6March,

Italy announced 176 newCovid-19 deaths,

comparabletothe 166deathsthe U Kreported

in week12. Ourpopulationisconsiderably

youngerthanItaly’s,and we havealso hadmore

tim etoready ourselves.With luck,we maybe

on aless steeptrajectory, but it’s simply too

soon to tell. Itwon’tbeuntil mid-April that

we know howBritain is weatheringthe st orm.

Afuneral in Lombardy

Statisticsofthe week

Around 15% of the UK

workforce–around five

million people–isself-

employed, up from 7.3%

in 1980.

Around half of all food sold

in the UK is imported.

About 30% of the country’s

food is normally eaten out

in cafés, restaurants and

sandwich shops.

The Times

Wit &

Wisdom