FT.COM/MAGAZINE APRIL 4/ 52020 ILLUSTRATIONBYHARRYHAYSOM 5
[email protected] @KuperSimoneven nowthat theirownlivesmaydepend on it,
mostTrumpistscontinuetobelievethe leader,
disbelieveexperts,value theeconomyoverlife
andregard blue statesasthe enemy.Trump’s
approval ratings amongRepublicansremain
above 90 percent.Ifhebecomesthe new Thabo
Mbeki–theformerSouthAfricanpresidentwhose
denialismduringtheAidsepidemicmadehimcul-
pablefor365,000unnecessarydeaths,according
toaHarvardstudy–Republicanswillbecomplicit.
France and Italyinnormal timesarepacked
with anti-vaxxers and conspiracytheorists.Butalmosteveryone in these countriesisnowlis-
tening to healthexperts and staying home. By
contrast,inUSpolls,far moreRepublicans than
Democratsdismissedthepandemicasahoaxand
saidtheywouldn’tchangebehaviour,evenwhile
medicalexpertswarnedthatCovid-19washead-
ing forredstatestoo.Still, it’snowonder these
Americans distrust medical science when it has
giventhem (at greatexpense) the opioid crisis
and,in13Trump-votingstates,averagelifeexpec-
tancybelow78,lowerthananycountryintheEU.
ManyRepublicans arealso following Trump
in endorsingachoice unimaginable in Europe:
risking death for theDow.SeveralRepublican
state governorsrefusedtoorderlockdowns on
time,andweresupportedbyrightwing groups
such as Americans for Prosperity.Authorities
often prioritisedbusinessoverlife in long-ago
pandemics,RichardJEvans,history professor
at Cambridge, told theTalkingPoliticspodcast.
He citestheexample of Hamburg’smerchants
trying to hush up the cholera outbreak of 1892.
It’sjust surprising this tradition coexists with
modernmedicalknowledge.
The commonRepublican argument that
people die inrecessions is onlytruebecause the
USmakesitso.UScompanieshavealreadysacked
millionsofworkers,manyofwhomhavelosttheir
health insurance. By contrast,many European
governments–including Britain’srightwing
Conservativesand the supposedly“neoliberal”
Emmanuel Macron–arepayingworkers’wages
to preventredundancies.European stateshave
learntfromtheirmistakesof2008:thistimethey
aimtobailoutordinarypeople,notbanks.
Once European countriesemerge from lock-
down, theymayhaveto block flights from the
pandemic’snextepicentre, the US.Atravelban
betweenthese twoflounderingregionswould
symboliseasplit inworld views that probably
won’tbebridgeableevenafterTrump.D
onald Trump’shandling of this
crisis wasn’tmerelypredictable.
It was predicted. In March 2016,
Art Caplan,bioethicist atNew
YorkUniversity,publishedablog
about an imaginary pandemic
under the then almost unimagi-
nable Trump presidency.Caplan
gotmanydetailsright.Hehasthe
virus jumping from animals in
Chinese markets to humans with
a“lethality [not] seen since the
Spanishfluoutbreakof1918”.
People areurgedto“stayhome,wear masks”.
Then President Trump leaps into action,
closingborders and screening passengers on
international flights.“Manypointedout that
these measuresdidnotwork andthat the
mutatedvirus was alreadyinthe US,”writes
Caplan.ButTrump“notedthatimmigrantsoften
brought disease”,and suggestedthe pandemic
was “part ofaconspiracy”.A“political battle
[erupts]betweenTrump,recalcitrantgovernors
inmanystates,[and]hisownCDCamidstcatcalls
from the international community”.Eventually,
Trumpgetsdistractedbya“tradewarwithChina
topunishthemforallowinganepidemic”.
Inacrisis,you discoverwhopeople are, and
whatcountriesare.WealreadyknewwhoTrump
was,but what doesthe current situationreveal
about the half of the US that herepresents,and
aboutEurope?Bothregionsstartwithasadsetof
similarities.NeithertheUS norEurope(except
arguablyGermany) could tame this pandemic
through earlytracking and testing,asSouth
KoreaandSingaporedid.BothEuropeandtheUS
arewreckingtheplanettoenrichtheirpeople,yet
cannotevenenrichmostofthem.Onlythiswinter
didBritishaveragewagesbrieflyregaintheirpre-
crisis levelof2 007 .Nowother European coun-
triesmaydropbelowthat bar.Theaverage
incomeofthebottomhalfofAmericanshadstag-
natedatabout $15,000 for 40yearsevenbefore
the pandemic, calculatesThomas Piketty in his
newbookCapitalandIdeology.
Neitherregion is nowshowing much cross-
country solidarity.Trump stoppedflights from
Europewithout warning Europeans; northern
European countriescontinue to block propos-
alsforsharedEurobonds,pushinggrievingSpain
and Italyintoanew era of depression and aus-
terity.Donationsofprotectivekits,andGermany
treatingafewdozenFrenchandItalianpatients,
can’tdisguisethatfailure.Brexitersneedn’thave
worried:thereisnoEuropeansuperstate.
But on other life-and-death matters,Europe
and AmericanRepublicans diverge. The latter
aresticking with Trump inasuicidal course that
hasnoEuropeanequivalent.Untilthispandemic,
therewas an“onlyjoking”quality to Trumpism.
ManyRepublicans useditasawayto stick it to
coastal elitesrather thanapractical ideology.
Theycould dismiss climate scientists and other
experts without suffering immediate harm.Yet‘ManyRepublicansarealso
followingTrumpinendorsing a
choice unimaginableinEurope:
risking deathfortheDow’
SIMON
KUPER
OPENING SHOTThecoronagulf
dividingEurope
andAmerica