Fertility falls rapidly in this third stage. Increasing female literacy typically
associated with economic growth has three effects on fertility. First, female
education can reduce desired family size through greater autonomy of women
in defining their fertility goals, accepting modern social norms, and a reduced
dependence on sons for social status and old-age security. If the probability of
a new-born child reaching adulthood is 75 per cent a mother who wants the
risk of having no adult son to be less than 5 per cent has to bear three sons,
which would require six births on average. If sons and daughters are consid-
ered equally valuable and parents want to avoid ending up with no children
then three births are enough. If the probability of survival to adulthood rises
from 75 to 80 per cent, two births are enough. Thus the combination of son
preference and high child mortality may be important causes of high fertility.
Second, female education generally reduces child mortality as educated
women can better access medical treatments. They need to plan for fewer
births to achieve a desired family size. Third, female education may help to
achieve the desired number of births by giving knowledge of, and access to,
contraception, and by increasing a woman’s bargaining power within the
family. Statistical evidence shows that women’s education and child mortality
are the most important factors explaining fertility differences and levels of son
preference (Drèze and Murthi, 2001; Murthi, 2002). Male literacy usually has
a much smaller nega tive effect on child mortality (independently of female
literacy). Rising incomes may make children more affordable, but other
factors related to higher incomes are likely to have the opposite effect.
Urbanization is likely to reduce fertility because children are less able to
contribute to household production and are more difficult to supervise by
parents in urban employment. Rising disposable incomes and savings will
reduce the need to have children to provide security in parents’ old age.
Urbanizing,industrializing economies typically implement legal changes to
prohibit child employment and promote school attendance. This is usually
reinforced by rising benefits from education. Urban sweatshop factories offer
higher incomes than do subsistence agriculture but generally require literate
workers. Considering fertility decisions as a form of investment, household
returns can be maximized by having a small number of educated children
rather than a large number of uneducated children.
In India the TFR fell rapidly from the 1960s onwards, from a peak of over
6, and dropped roughly 1 child per decade to reach 3.5 in the 1990s (Dyson
2005:21). Higher literacy, greater availability of healthcare, and higher
incomes lead to a lower TFR. India has experienced average GDP growth of
around 5 per cent a year between 1950 and 2000, and slow employment
growth, particularly of women. TFR fell less quickly than in East Asia where
economic growth, industrialization, and (especially) women’s employment
growth were far more rapid after 1950.
An odd pattern of fertility decline has emerged in contemporary India. In
survey evidence between 1992 and 2005 it has become clear that the main
contribution to the overall fertility decline in the majority of Indian states came
Population and Economic Growth/Development 89