THENEWYORKER, APRIL13, 2020 45BERLIN, GERMANY, BY CHRISTOPH NIEMANNpital in New York, my friend was pre-
paring three floors for COVID-19, eight
I.C.U.s in total, where she predicts that
supplies will become scarce. She put
the face mask for my grandmother in
a floral gift bag and left it with her door-
man. In the bag was also a tin of hot-
chocolate mix.
Who would believe this? I ask my
fiction class, now online, to consider the
credibility of events and what a reader
will accept.
Not so long ago, I studied epidemi-
ology. For my doctorate, I had been
trained in chronic-disease epidemiol-
ogy, but infectious-disease data are not
unfamiliar. I.D. epidemiology starts with
models, moving people from bins of
susceptible (S) to infected (I) to recov-
ered (R) and, potentially, back to bin S.
The true flow rates between these bins
are still unknown—and probably vary
by country, by health system, and by
speed of preventive response—which
explains why current predictions have
such a huge range for the coronavirus.
Under the subject line “crazy times,” my
doctoral adviser and I have been e-mail-
ing. He has two teen-age kids, both now
home from school. He believes that a
concept should never be so complex that
he cannot explain it to them. To sim-
plify details, the key word is “exponen-
tial.” Exponential growth and impact.
In January and February, my uncle
sent us a daily ticker count of the num-
ber of cases in China and the number
of deaths. The count window had a
calming blue border and a white type-
face. In March, he began sending a ticker
count for Europe and the U.S. By the
numbers, China is now safer than most
of the world. But the country is trying
to fend off a second wave, and this comes
at a cost for its citizens abroad.
It took my entire family several days
to figure out “the procedure.” After land-
ing in Shanghai, my grandmother would
wait in a multi-hour screening line to
receive a green, red, or yellow card. Com-
ing from New York, she would almost
certainly receive a yellow one. I think
of soccer, which my grandmother likes
to watch. She sits formally and with
her arms crossed. When the ball is
passed well, she lifts her arms up an
inch and says “good ball, good ball.”
From Shanghai, she would board a busto Kunshan, where Jiangsu authorities
will screen her again. Then another bus
to Nanjing, where she will be quaran-
tined at home for two weeks. On the
first and the last days, a health worker
will come to check her temperature. My
uncle will be allowed to deliver food,
but only to the doorstep. The door can-
not be opened.
On March 25th, the flight was can-
celled, as were most April flights to China,
and my grandmother is still waiting to
be rebooked. Once her visa expires, she
will have trouble reapplying for another,
which will make it hard for her to visit
us again in the future, so most likely she
won’t. I am looking into what we can do
about her pills. Her doctors are in China.
Will she be able to see one here?
Epidemiologists follow populations.
We study how large groups funnel from
unexposed to exposed, from control to
case. The larger the sample, the higher
the case number. The higher the case
number, the more precise the results.
We do not think in terms of anecdotes
or individuals. At the individual level,
statistics break down. But my grand-
mother is part of a statistic. She is onejixiansheng
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