Los Angeles Times - 04.04.2020

A6 SATURDAY, APRIL 4, 2020 LATIMES.COM

NEW YORK — The flags
at Rockefeller Center fly
over a desolate concrete can-
yon. Photojournalists with
long-lens cameras wander
through Times Square to
capture the solitude on one
of the world’s busiest
thoroughfares. White tents
have been erected on the
northern section of Central
Park to accommodate the
overflow of patients from
Mount Sinai Hospital — a
grim tableau evoking a pre-
vious century.
As the national death toll
from the pandemic topped
7,000 — more than double
the number of fatalities from
the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist at-
tacks — New York has been
transformed, and new hab-
its have formed. Many of the
4 million people who typi-
cally come to work in Man-
hattan are now staying con-
nected with their jobs re-
motely. The restaurants and
cafes that remain open have
become takeout stops as
they struggle to stay afloat.
Public transportation has
seen a drop in passengers of
as much as 80%.
After months of devas-
tating loss and unfathom-
able fear following 9/11, the
nation’s most populous city
proved its resilience, re-
bounding more prosperous
than ever. Experts believe
the city will endure signifi-
cant pain before experienc-
ing that kind of comeback,
given the pandemic’s death
toll (more than 1,800 as of
Friday evening) and cata-
strophic economic losses —
pegged at $5 billion by one fi-
nancial watchdog group. At
the very least, months, if not
years, of uncertainty lie
ahead.
“I think people were
afraid after 9/11, but they wer-
en’t afraid to go out and eat,”
said Melissa Fleischut, pres-
ident and chief executive of
the New York State Restau-
rant Assn. “As long as the
pandemic continues to go
on, I think the prospects for
the majority of restaurants
to come out on the other side
is slimming. I think it is an al-
tering event — a moment of
change for the industry for
sure.”
Arecent survey by the
National Restaurant Assn.
showed that 5% of New
York’s restaurants have per-
manently closed due to the
restrictions imposed to con-
tain the pandemic. On
March 20, all workers in non-
essential businesses across
New York state were ordered
to stay home by Gov.
Andrew Cuomo.
An additional 12% ex-
pected to close permanently
in the next 30 days if the cur-

rent situation did not im-

prove. The growth of the

restaurant business had al-

ready been slowing due to

the state’s $15-an-hour min-

imum wage.

“We had already seen life

get more challenging for the

restaurant owner and op-

erator throughout the

state,” Fleischut said. “They

were trying to manage with

labor costs that have in-

creased dramatically. Rent

was always [a concern].

Profit margins are slim, and

they have no savings to

speak of to get them through

a catastrophic event like

this.”

Nearly half of the restau-

rants in New York are closed,

even with the provision that

they can serve food and alco-

holic beverages for takeout

and delivery. Dante, a 105-

year-old cafe on MacDougal

Street in Greenwich Village,

has its bartenders preparing

their specialty cocktails to

go, offering them in glass

containers that are lined up

on tables that would other-

wise have seated customers.

“We’re bottling these,”

Jessica Friedman, a server

at Dante, said. “It’s keeping

us all employed.”

Fleischut said one

restaurant proprietor had

remodeled so he could sell

meal kits for customers to

heat and serve at home. She

expects an acceleration in

the number of restaurants

converting to “fast casual”

service, especially if social

distancing continues after

the pandemic abates.

Caterers and event plan-

ners are also anxious over

how long it will take for the

public to feel comfortable

going back to business con-

ferences, trade shows, con-

ventions, social galas, festi-

vals and award presenta-

tions, which bring an influx

of billions of dollars to New

York. Midtown’s Jacob K.

Javits Convention Center,

normally host to trade

shows like BookExpo, has

been turned into a field hos-

pital.

David Adler, founder and

chief executive of BizBash, a

New York firm that advises

the event business, said he

has been on calls with com-

panies trying to determine

when normalcy, whatever

that is, will return and how to

navigate the economic shut-

down.

“It’s all about how you not

cancel events but postpone

them,” Adler said. “The

problem is nobody knows

when they can postpone un-

til. There is all of this un-

known in the markets. A lot

of people are living off depos-

its for future events.”

Cash flow is an issue,

Adler said, and many op-

erators serving the event

business will eventually fold

or be forced to sell while

other entrepreneurs step in.

“There will be a lot of car-

nage,” he said.

In the long term, Adler

does not believe the meeting

and event business will ex-

perience a negative impact

from the growth in web con-

ferencing services — such as

Zoom and Webex — that

businesses are being forced

to use during the pandemic.

There will be a pent-up

appetite for human connec-

tion once the crisis passes,

Adler said. But it will take

work to bring the business

back. In the years following

9/11, he was part of a coalition

that held numerous events

at Gracie Mansion — the of-

ficial residence of the mayor

—and lighting displays at

the Empire State Building to

signal to businesses that the

city was ready to return as a

convention and meeting

destination.

“New Yorkers are very vi-

brant in that they worked

hard in getting people come

back,” Adler said. “It doesn’t

happen by accident.”

But for some New York-

area residents forced to

work at home while their of-

fices are shut down, the situ-

ation is likely to become per-

manent, according to Sam

Schwartz, who heads a

transportation planning

and engineering firm in New

York.

“I’m realizing, ‘Hey, do I

really need to take that extra

floor?’ ” he said. “A lot of peo-

ple were able to get a lot done

remotely, including me. You

will see some employers offer

an alternative to work at

home.”

Schwartz puts the per-

centage of New York employ-

ees working remotely at 2%

to 3% and sees it doubling as

a result of the pandemic. But

he doesn’t see this making

public transportation any

less crowded.

Subway ridership fell off

dramatically in the months

after 9/11 as people feared an-

other attack. Ridership

bounced back after a year,

and in the following decade,

the city saw record numbers.

Schwartz noted that the

number of cars crossing the

Hudson River into Manhat-

tan dropped about 25% to

30% in March, far less than

the steep declines in trains,

buses and ferries making the

same trip.

But he does not believe

prolonged fear of COVID-

will put more commuters

back in their cars. Schwartz

said that would be unsus-

tainable and would ulti-

mately paralyze the city;

moreover, New York is mov-

ing to install a “congestion

charge” on driving in the

most heavily trafficked

parts of Manhattan, start-

ing next year.

New York has endured

numerous catastrophes —

the sinking of the steamship

General Slocum in 1904, the

Triangle Shirtwaist Factory

fire of 1911, near-bankruptcy

in the mid-1970s, numerous

plane crashes and even ter-

rorist attacks — and always

bounced back.

“There are a lot of people

traveling today who barely

know 9/11 — they were chil-

dren,” Schwartz noted.

“Now they make up a big

chunk of the commuting

population.”

New York businesses face a grim future

Experts say pandemic’s economic toll will exceed that of 9/11, and recovery will take longer

By Stephen Battaglio

BUSINESSwas at a standstill in Times Square on Friday. “There will be a lot of carnage,” predicts one advisor to the events industry.

Angela WeissAFP/Getty Images

AT DANTEin Greenwich Village, bartenders Liam

Pierce and Jessica Friedman mix drinks to go. The

restaurant world has been hit especially hard.

Stephen Battaglio Los Angeles Times

had unlimited resources, I’d
do serological testing on ev-
ery person in this country as
fast as I could,” said Dr.
David Merin, an emergency
room physician with the
Emergency Medicine Spe-
cialists of Orange County,
who said he sees dozens of
suspected COVID-19 pa-
tients each day and strug-
gles to understand the delay
in serological testing.
As the United States de-
bates how long social dis-
tancing restrictions should
stay in place, serology test-
ing, if coupled with other
forms of mitigation such as
contact tracing, could pro-
vide relief by allowing those
who have some immunity to
return to work or school.
Germany may issue “immu-
nity certificates” allowing re-
lease from quarantine for
those who show they have al-
ready been exposed and
fought off the coronavirus.
If enough people in an
area had immunity, whole
neighborhoods or cities
might see restrictions loos-
ened. Or, in the case of
healthcare workers and oth-
ers on the front lines who
lack protective gear, it could
identify who has a lower risk
if exposed.
Widespread serology
testing would also give a
more accurate picture of
where the virus has been —
and where it’s likely to go
next.
Dr. Farzad Mostashari, a
former federal health official
who ran a door-to-door sero-
logical testing program for
West Nile virus in the 1990s,
said it’s possible that the
pathogen has spread farther

than realized in the United

States and that many peo-

ple have developed immuni-

ty. The opposite is also pos-

sible, that the novel co-

ronavirus is just beginning

its assault on the U.S.

“We don’t know right now

which of those two scenarios

are operating,” Mostashari

said. Serological testing

could illuminate “which of

those two universes we are

living in.”

The two federal agencies

that would probably play

roles in large-scale serology

testing have been harshly

criticized for botching the

COVID-19 testing process.

The Centers for Disease

Control and Prevention,

which was slow to develop a

coronavirus diagnostic test

and later distributed a

flawed one, is still in the ini-

tial stages of developing a se-

rology test. Last month,

CDC Director Dr. Robert

Redfield told Congress the

agency was developing two

such tests, but neither has

been released.

The Food and Drug Ad-

ministration, which is re-

sponsible for vetting tests

developed by others, was

widely criticized for its un-

willingness to speed up the

approval process for diag-

nostic tests.

But the agency has taken

a nearly opposite approach

to serological tests. It has

waived many guidelines for

bringing them to market

and given permission for

states to implement and

manage their own testing

without FDA input — as

long as companies inform

consumers they are not FDA

approved.

Under this lax scheme, it

has allowed the sale of more

than 40 serological tests, not

requiring them to undergo a

formal emergency-use ap-

proval process.

With regulatory hurdles

removed, academic institu-

tions, private labs and entre-

preneurs are rushing to cre-

ate their own blood tests or

import them from abroad.

But the accelerated process

has created potential prob-

lems because there is no cen-

tralized collection of results,

no uniformity of methods

and slim evidence that the

tests work with acceptable

accuracy.

These tests run the gam-

ut from consumer-oriented

at-home models, similar to a

pregnancy test and meant to

help diagnose COVID-19, to

lab-based tests designed to

be performed by medical

professionals with research

in mind. The mix may con-

fuse consumers who don’t

understand the difference

between having the infection

and having immunity, and

could give a false sense of se-

curity, experts said.

Even with antibodies

present, no one knows how

long immunity would last. It

could range from a few

months to years.

The tests are not all equal

and do not check for the

same markers, probably

causing wide variation in

what the results ultimately

mean.

For public health offi-

cials, the myriad options

may muddy the waters on

the best way to move for-

ward with broader testing if

states or cities attempt their

own serological surveys.

One of the most promis-

ing tests for public health

was released last week by

the Icahn School of Medi-

cine at Mount Sinai, health

experts said. Researchers

there already posted the

recipefor their antibody test

to help other institutions

jump-start their own efforts.

Near the other end of the

spectrum, in the consumer

market, Biomerica, an

Irvinecompany, said it has

shipped samples of its 10-

minute disposable serology

tests to the Middle East and

Europe. The company plans

to begin filling bulk orders

overseas within weeks — but

said it was awaiting “pos-

sible clearance and eventual

use” domestically.

And Tuesday, a serology

test aimed at an upscale

market became available to

anyone with $250 through

NextHealth, a luxury well-

ness lounge where “health

hackers” offer intravenous

vitamin therapy and other

elite services in West Holly-

wood.

Even as tests begin to hit

the market, the U.S. govern-

ment has only hinted that

it’s planning the kind of wide

serology study that could re-

lieve social restrictions. No

formal plans have been an-

nounced. But that compre-

hensive effort is necessary to

gather the kind of data that

will make serology results

useful for resuming more

normal life.

“You have to have a na-

tional database,” said Dr.

Peter Beilenson, Sacra-

mento County’s health offi-

cer. “It’s protecting the

population. Whether it’s

against war or viruses, that’s

their role.”

Dr. Mark McClellan, who

directs the Duke-Margolis

Center for Health Policy and

was the FDA commissioner

from 2002 to 2004, said he be-

lieves the federal govern-

ment is “making progress”

on a surveillance program,

but “we’re not there yet.”

“This is not over by a long

shot,” he said. “The sooner

we can take these additional

steps on surveillance and se-

rology ... the sooner we can

get back to the new normal.”

Nation lacks cohesive plan to find the immune

[Immunity,from A1]

RIVERSIDE COUNTYmedical workers conduct drive-through coronavirus

testing in Lake Elsinore. Serology testing could be the next phase of the battle.

Gina FerazziLos Angeles Times