2 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Wednesday18 March 2020
important.”
Gilles Moec, Axa chief economist, said
that in France output of “accommoda-
tion and food services”, accounting for
2.8 per cent of gross domestic product,
and “arts and recreational activities”,
which make up 1.4 per cent,were likely
to fall close to zero.
A lockdown of six weeks in these two
sectors alone, followed by the optimistic
scenario of a return to normal, would
chop 2 percentage points off French
GDP in one quarter, even before the
knock-on effects of lost spending power
and reduced confidence.
Add in declines in air travel, manufac-
turing and more, and the stage is set for
a severe economic contraction. “It’s
going to be big,” Mr Moec said.
French ministers have movedto reas-
sure entrepreneurs and employees that
they will spend whatever is required —
“tens of billions of euros”, said Bruno Le
Maire, finance minister, to save jobs and
prop up the economy for the duration of
the coronavirus crisis.
The eight laid-off employees at Chris-
tophe’s café, for example, will be subsi-
dised by the government for the
duration of the shutdown and so will not
lose their jobs. Christophe will be
allowed to delay tax and social security
payments.
In Spain, the government programme
announced yesterday appeared to meet
some of the demands made by Mr Gara-
mendi’s confederation and the coun-
try’s unions. “The state will provide our
businesses with all the liquidity they
need — all — to remain operating,” said
Pedro Sánchez, prime minister.
In addition to the credit guarantees,
the government plans to make it easier
for companies to suspend people tem-
porarily, while maintaining benefits,
rather than permanently laying them
off, and to relax obligations to make
social security payments.
But there is much to do. Speaking
before the government announcement,
Alejandro Sánchez, a restaurateur in the
mountain village of Robledo de Chavela,
near Madrid, said: “We don’t know how
long this is going to last, but it seems
set to be a long time... We are very
frightened.”
Additional reporting by Arthur Beesley in
Dublin
everything right now, we will have to
close next month,” he said. “The sim-
plest thing would be to shut now and
have done with it, but why would we
want to do that?”
Antonio Garamendi, head of the Con-
federation of Employers and Industries
of Spain, which represents 2m compa-
nies and self-employed entrepreneurs,
said businesses with costs and no
income would inevitably last “only a
very short time”. “We have to be aware
that the government’s move to impose a
state of alert has practically paralysed
the entire economy,” he said. “About
95-96 per cent of the companies in Spain
are SMEs, so their contribution is hugely
ment announced yesterday what it said
was the biggest mobilisation of
resources in Span’s history, including
€100bn in loan and credit guarantees.
“We don’t know what is going to hap-
pen from one day to another; each day is
worse,” said Lucio Montero, who makes
stands for exhibitions, conventions and
fairs, speaking before the government
announcement. “Thankfully, our com-
pany is economically healthy and
doesn’t have any debt, but we won’t
have any business until at least July.”
Mr Montero’s company has €25,
in fixed costs a month and is trying to
negotiate rent reductions and more
time to pay suppliers. “If I keep paying
V I C TO R M A L L E T— PARIS
DA N I E L D O M B E Y— MADRID
Thecoronaviruspandemic is only the
latest, if most severe, of the financial
blows to hit the long-suffering Christo-
phe in his two years running a corner
café in the prosperous sixth arrondisse-
ment of Paris.
“First, I had the gilets jaunes demon-
strations, and then the strikes, and now
this,” he said as his staff clear the refrig-
erators of food that will be given away
following the French government
orders to close schools, restaurants,
cafés and non-essential shops. He added
sardonically: “I expect the next thing
will be an earthquake.”
The small businesses that are the life-
blood of national economies in Euro-
pean countries such as Spain, France
and Ireland have been stopped in their
tracks by the rapid spread of the pan-
demic and the “social distancing” meas-
ures hastily adopted to control the virus.
Economists say theeffects of the
small-business shutdown are likely to
trigger a recession across Europe.
Christophe’s woes are echoed
throughout the left-bank districts of
Paris where streets are normally teem-
ing with Chinese tourists, French
flâneursand international students.
“Economically, it’s a catastrophe,”
said Rémy Silva, who manages the Hotel
d’Angleterre, once the haunt of Ernest
Hemingway. In theory, hotels can stay
open, but he is closingbecause there are
no takers for hisrooms.“We are going to
completely lose two months.”
In Ireland, the government ordered
the closure of 7,000 pubs on Sunday,
causing deep concern in a sector in
which the busy season usually starts
with the St Patrick’s day festivities,
which fell yesterday.
In Spain, where the government has
imposed a nationwide lockdown, small
and medium-sized businesses have
been warning they will not be able to
survive long without immediate, sub-
stantial help. In response, the govern-
FINANCIAL TIMES
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CORONAVIRUS
India’s financial capital Mumbai faces
lockdown as measures introduced
Cases so far
India introduced measures to lock down the financial
capital, Mumbai. The number of confirmed infections
in Maharashtra, where Mumbai is located, has risen to
- India has confirmed 137 cases in total.
India has banned public gatherings in some cities and
is stamping with indelible ink the hands of those told to
self-quarantine. This will shame them from venturing
into public. Authorities cancelled intercity trains but
stopped short of suspending Mumbai’s rail service.
Malaysia to jail or fine people
while Indonesia restricts travel
Malaysia will imprison or fine people who breach a
national lockdown. They face imprisonment of up to
two years as well as a potential fine.
Malaysia reported its first deaths and confirmed
cases jumped by more than 100 for the third consecu-
tive day. Indonesia imposed travel restrictions — five
people have died and the case tally is 172. The World
Health Organization warned the number of cases in
south-east Asia was “increasing quickly”.
German CDU hopeful tests positive
Uefa postpones Euro 2020 football
tournament until next summer
Uefa, European football’s governing body, postponed
the Euro 2020championship until June 2021. The com-
petition,expected to generate $2.5bn from broadcast-
ing, ticketing and sponsorship, will be delayedto allow
the continent’s domesticleagues to finish their seasons.
Almost every football division in Europe has
suspended matches or started playing matches in
empty stadiums.The French Open tennis tournament,
due to take place in May,is rescheduled to September.
Trump administration signals
openness to domestic travel curbs
Donald Trump said it was “possible” the administra-
tion would impose restrictions on domestic travel.
Airlines for America, the industry group, said a
30-day ban on domestic flights would cost them up to
$10bn by the end of the year, potentially hastening the
demise of some companies. It said: “A near-term 30-
day domestic ban would result in a massive cash draw
because... even non-refundable tickets are refunda-
ble to the customer, in cash.. .”
Friedrich Merz, candidate to lead Germany’s Christian
Democratic Union, tested positive. He said he would go
into quarantine at home until the end of next week.
190,
cases and 7,519 deaths at March 17 17.53pm GMT
Source: Johns Hopkins University
Read more at ft.com/coronavirus
CORONAVIRUS
ROUND-UP
B R E N DA N G R E E L E Y— WASHINGTON
J O E R E N N I S O N— LONDON
C O L BY S M I T H— NEW YORK
The Federal Reserve threw a direct life-
line to corporate Americayesterday,
saying that it would begin buyingcom-
mercial paperthrough a facility last
invoked during the 2008 financial crisis.
The $1.1tn commercial paper market
is a crucial source of funds for large com-
panies looking to raise cash for short-
term needs, and the Fed said it was step-
ping in to make sure they did not face a
financing crunch.
“The commercial paper market has
been under considerable strain in
recent days as businesses and house-
holds face greater uncertainty in light of
the coronavirus outbreak,” the central
bank’s board of governors said.
Analysts at Bank of America went as
far as calling the market “frozen” last
week, as a rise in demand for cash col-
lided with a pull back from the market
by money market funds — one of the
biggest buyers of commercial paper.
Borrowing costs have soared over the
past week. The difference between the
three-month commercial paper interest
rate for the highest-rated non-financial
borrowers and the benchmark govern-
ment overnight indexed swap (OIS) rate
has risen to 1.24 per cent, from just 0.
per cent at the start of the month.
As the pandemic has worsened,
groups facinguncertainty have been
seeking cash where they can, including
the commercial paper marketand by
drawing downcredit linesfrom banks.
The Fed said that by stepping in as a
buyer of commercial paper, it hoped to
encourage others to return to the
market.
“By eliminating much of the risk that
eligible issuers will not be able to repay
investors by rolling over their maturing
commercial paper obligations, this facil-
ity should encourage investors to once
again engage in term lending in the com-
mercial paper market.”
“The [commercial paper facility] is a
needed support mechanism for a mar-
ket that simply was not clearing,” said
Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist
at investment manager Janney Mont-
gomery Scott. “At the end of the day,
public sector capital can never supplant
private sector capital, but it can fix mar-
ket failings.”
The Fed will structure the facility as a
special purpose vehicle. The New York
Fed will lend to the vehicle, and the
vehicle will purchase highly rated three-
month dollar-denominated commercial
paper through the Fed’s primary deal-
ers. The US Treasury department will in
turn provide the New York Fed with
$10bn of credit protection, to insure
against losses.
The last commercial paper facility of
the financial crisis was closed in 2010.
The Fed established the new facility
under section 13 (3) of the Federal
Reserve Act, meaning it is acting with
the approval of Steven Mnuchin, the US
Treasury secretary.
“The economic disruption and uncer-
tainty created by Covid-19 has created
challenges for the commercial paper
market, constraining access to short-
term credit for American businesses,”
Mr Mnuchin said in a statement.
“By providing short-term credit, the
[facility] will help American businesses
manage their finances through this
challenging period.”
M I C H A E L P E E L A N D SA M F L E M I N G
BRUSSELS
Russian pro-Kremlin media have
mounted a “significantdisinformation
campaign” to aggravate thecoronavi-
ruspandemic crisis in western coun-
tries by destroying confidence in the
emergency response,says an internal
EU report.
The effort aims to stoke “confusion,
panic, and fear” and stop people obtain-
ing good information about the conta-
gion, as part of a broader strategy to
“subvert European societies from
within”, the European diplomatic serv-
ice analysis said.
The nine-page report — dated March
16 and seen by the Financial Times —
outlines a wide range of attempts inter-
nationally to exploit thepandemic by
spreading implausible narratives. It said
the effectiveness of vetting put in place
by social media companies for coronavi-
rus content was still unclear.
“A significant disinformation cam-
paign by Russian state media and pro-
Kremlin outlets regarding Covid-19 is
ongoing,” saidanalysis from the Euro-
pean External Action Service’s strategic
communications division. “The over-
arching aim of Kremlin disinformation
is to aggravate the public health crisis in
western countries, specifically by
undermining public trust in national
healthcare systems, thus preventing an
effective response to the outbreak.”
The EU had recorded almost 80 cases
in its database of Covid-19 related disin-
formation efforts since January 22, the
report said. It noted that “Russian state-
linked false personas and accounts” that
had previously posted on subjects
including Syria and the Frenchgilets
jaunesprotests switched to “pushing dis-
information about the coronavirus in
English, Spanish, Italian, German and
French online”.
Pro-Kremlin content sometimes pro-
motes the idea that coronavirus is “a
human creation, weaponised by the
west”, the report says. Messages target-
ing Italy aim to exacerbate fears over the
ability of national and international
authorities to manage the outbreak,
while messages in Spanish “advance
apocalyptic stories, blame capitalists for
trying to benefit from the virus, and
emphasise how well Russia and [Presi-
dent Vladimir] Putin are dealing with
the outbreak”.
RT Spanish — an outlet of theRussian
state-backed news agency formerly
known as Russia Today — registered
more than 6.8m shareson Facebook,
Twitter and Reddit for coronavirus con-
tent between January 1 and March 12,
the analysis said. That made it the 12th
most popular source among a basket of
domains surveyed, ahead of some big
western media outlets. RT has always
denied it spreads disinformation.
The pro-Kremlin pandemic strategy
was to “deploy dozens of different and
often contradictory narratives that are
disseminated through official channels,
as well as online and through social
media”, the European analysis argued.
“The campaign is designed to exacer-
bate confusion, panic, and fear, and to
prevent people from accessing reliable
information about the virus and public
safety provisions,” the EU document
said.
The European External Action Serv-
ice declined to comment.
Additional reporting by Henry Foy in
Moscow
Easing measures
Fed swoops to buy commercial paper
Bank acts as short-term
funding market for
companies is ‘frozen’
Leisure industry.Small and medium businesses
Café culture succumbs to social distancing
Closure of favourite meeting
places prompts calls for
immediate state response
Long wait: a
worker takes
tables and
chairs into
storage at
a Paris café
closed for lack
of customers
Cyril Marcilhacy/Bloomberg
Inside
See Opinion,
Martin Wolf;
Lex; Tail Risk;
Companies
and Markets
‘First, I had
the gilets
jaunes
demos, and
then the
strikes and
now this. I
expect the
next thing
will be an
earthquake’
CHRISTOPHE
CAFÉ OWNER
What
they say
‘It’s a
catastrophe.
We are
going to
completely
lose two
months’
RÉMY SILVA
HOTEL MANAGER
Fake news
EU report warns of Russian disinformation campaign
Headlines:
Ukrainians
wearing face
masks look at
the latest news
on a phone in
Kyiv yesterday
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