Financial Times Europe 18Mar2020

(WallPaper) #1

2 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Wednesday18 March 2020


important.”


Gilles Moec, Axa chief economist, said


that in France output of “accommoda-


tion and food services”, accounting for


2.8 per cent of gross domestic product,


and “arts and recreational activities”,


which make up 1.4 per cent,were likely


to fall close to zero.


A lockdown of six weeks in these two


sectors alone, followed by the optimistic


scenario of a return to normal, would


chop 2 percentage points off French


GDP in one quarter, even before the


knock-on effects of lost spending power


and reduced confidence.


Add in declines in air travel, manufac-


turing and more, and the stage is set for


a severe economic contraction. “It’s


going to be big,” Mr Moec said.


French ministers have movedto reas-


sure entrepreneurs and employees that


they will spend whatever is required —


“tens of billions of euros”, said Bruno Le


Maire, finance minister, to save jobs and


prop up the economy for the duration of


the coronavirus crisis.


The eight laid-off employees at Chris-


tophe’s café, for example, will be subsi-


dised by the government for the


duration of the shutdown and so will not


lose their jobs. Christophe will be


allowed to delay tax and social security


payments.


In Spain, the government programme


announced yesterday appeared to meet


some of the demands made by Mr Gara-


mendi’s confederation and the coun-


try’s unions. “The state will provide our


businesses with all the liquidity they


need — all — to remain operating,” said


Pedro Sánchez, prime minister.


In addition to the credit guarantees,


the government plans to make it easier


for companies to suspend people tem-


porarily, while maintaining benefits,


rather than permanently laying them


off, and to relax obligations to make


social security payments.


But there is much to do. Speaking


before the government announcement,


Alejandro Sánchez, a restaurateur in the


mountain village of Robledo de Chavela,


near Madrid, said: “We don’t know how


long this is going to last, but it seems


set to be a long time... We are very


frightened.”


Additional reporting by Arthur Beesley in


Dublin


everything right now, we will have to


close next month,” he said. “The sim-


plest thing would be to shut now and


have done with it, but why would we


want to do that?”


Antonio Garamendi, head of the Con-


federation of Employers and Industries


of Spain, which represents 2m compa-


nies and self-employed entrepreneurs,


said businesses with costs and no


income would inevitably last “only a


very short time”. “We have to be aware


that the government’s move to impose a


state of alert has practically paralysed


the entire economy,” he said. “About


95-96 per cent of the companies in Spain


are SMEs, so their contribution is hugely


ment announced yesterday what it said


was the biggest mobilisation of


resources in Span’s history, including


€100bn in loan and credit guarantees.


“We don’t know what is going to hap-


pen from one day to another; each day is


worse,” said Lucio Montero, who makes


stands for exhibitions, conventions and


fairs, speaking before the government


announcement. “Thankfully, our com-


pany is economically healthy and


doesn’t have any debt, but we won’t


have any business until at least July.”


Mr Montero’s company has €25,


in fixed costs a month and is trying to


negotiate rent reductions and more


time to pay suppliers. “If I keep paying


V I C TO R M A L L E T— PARIS
DA N I E L D O M B E Y— MADRID

Thecoronaviruspandemic is only the


latest, if most severe, of the financial


blows to hit the long-suffering Christo-


phe in his two years running a corner


café in the prosperous sixth arrondisse-


ment of Paris.


“First, I had the gilets jaunes demon-


strations, and then the strikes, and now


this,” he said as his staff clear the refrig-


erators of food that will be given away


following the French government


orders to close schools, restaurants,


cafés and non-essential shops. He added


sardonically: “I expect the next thing


will be an earthquake.”


The small businesses that are the life-


blood of national economies in Euro-


pean countries such as Spain, France


and Ireland have been stopped in their


tracks by the rapid spread of the pan-


demic and the “social distancing” meas-


ures hastily adopted to control the virus.


Economists say theeffects of the


small-business shutdown are likely to


trigger a recession across Europe.


Christophe’s woes are echoed


throughout the left-bank districts of


Paris where streets are normally teem-


ing with Chinese tourists, French


flâneursand international students.


“Economically, it’s a catastrophe,”


said Rémy Silva, who manages the Hotel


d’Angleterre, once the haunt of Ernest


Hemingway. In theory, hotels can stay


open, but he is closingbecause there are


no takers for hisrooms.“We are going to


completely lose two months.”


In Ireland, the government ordered


the closure of 7,000 pubs on Sunday,


causing deep concern in a sector in


which the busy season usually starts


with the St Patrick’s day festivities,


which fell yesterday.


In Spain, where the government has


imposed a nationwide lockdown, small


and medium-sized businesses have


been warning they will not be able to


survive long without immediate, sub-


stantial help. In response, the govern-


FINANCIAL TIMES
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CORONAVIRUS


India’s financial capital Mumbai faces


lockdown as measures introduced


Cases so far


India introduced measures to lock down the financial


capital, Mumbai. The number of confirmed infections


in Maharashtra, where Mumbai is located, has risen to



  1. India has confirmed 137 cases in total.


India has banned public gatherings in some cities and


is stamping with indelible ink the hands of those told to


self-quarantine. This will shame them from venturing


into public. Authorities cancelled intercity trains but


stopped short of suspending Mumbai’s rail service.


Malaysia to jail or fine people


while Indonesia restricts travel


Malaysia will imprison or fine people who breach a


national lockdown. They face imprisonment of up to


two years as well as a potential fine.


Malaysia reported its first deaths and confirmed


cases jumped by more than 100 for the third consecu-


tive day. Indonesia imposed travel restrictions — five


people have died and the case tally is 172. The World


Health Organization warned the number of cases in


south-east Asia was “increasing quickly”.


German CDU hopeful tests positive


Uefa postpones Euro 2020 football


tournament until next summer


Uefa, European football’s governing body, postponed


the Euro 2020championship until June 2021. The com-


petition,expected to generate $2.5bn from broadcast-


ing, ticketing and sponsorship, will be delayedto allow


the continent’s domesticleagues to finish their seasons.


Almost every football division in Europe has


suspended matches or started playing matches in


empty stadiums.The French Open tennis tournament,


due to take place in May,is rescheduled to September.


Trump administration signals


openness to domestic travel curbs


Donald Trump said it was “possible” the administra-


tion would impose restrictions on domestic travel.


Airlines for America, the industry group, said a


30-day ban on domestic flights would cost them up to


$10bn by the end of the year, potentially hastening the


demise of some companies. It said: “A near-term 30-


day domestic ban would result in a massive cash draw


because... even non-refundable tickets are refunda-


ble to the customer, in cash.. .”


Friedrich Merz, candidate to lead Germany’s Christian


Democratic Union, tested positive. He said he would go


into quarantine at home until the end of next week.


190,


cases and 7,519 deaths at March 17 17.53pm GMT
Source: Johns Hopkins University

Read more at ft.com/coronavirus


CORONAVIRUS


ROUND-UP


B R E N DA N G R E E L E Y— WASHINGTON
J O E R E N N I S O N— LONDON
C O L BY S M I T H— NEW YORK

The Federal Reserve threw a direct life-


line to corporate Americayesterday,


saying that it would begin buyingcom-


mercial paperthrough a facility last


invoked during the 2008 financial crisis.


The $1.1tn commercial paper market


is a crucial source of funds for large com-


panies looking to raise cash for short-


term needs, and the Fed said it was step-


ping in to make sure they did not face a


financing crunch.


“The commercial paper market has


been under considerable strain in


recent days as businesses and house-


holds face greater uncertainty in light of


the coronavirus outbreak,” the central


bank’s board of governors said.


Analysts at Bank of America went as


far as calling the market “frozen” last


week, as a rise in demand for cash col-


lided with a pull back from the market


by money market funds — one of the


biggest buyers of commercial paper.


Borrowing costs have soared over the


past week. The difference between the


three-month commercial paper interest


rate for the highest-rated non-financial


borrowers and the benchmark govern-


ment overnight indexed swap (OIS) rate


has risen to 1.24 per cent, from just 0.


per cent at the start of the month.


As the pandemic has worsened,


groups facinguncertainty have been


seeking cash where they can, including


the commercial paper marketand by


drawing downcredit linesfrom banks.


The Fed said that by stepping in as a


buyer of commercial paper, it hoped to


encourage others to return to the


market.


“By eliminating much of the risk that


eligible issuers will not be able to repay


investors by rolling over their maturing


commercial paper obligations, this facil-


ity should encourage investors to once


again engage in term lending in the com-


mercial paper market.”


“The [commercial paper facility] is a


needed support mechanism for a mar-


ket that simply was not clearing,” said


Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist


at investment manager Janney Mont-


gomery Scott. “At the end of the day,


public sector capital can never supplant


private sector capital, but it can fix mar-


ket failings.”


The Fed will structure the facility as a


special purpose vehicle. The New York


Fed will lend to the vehicle, and the


vehicle will purchase highly rated three-


month dollar-denominated commercial


paper through the Fed’s primary deal-


ers. The US Treasury department will in


turn provide the New York Fed with


$10bn of credit protection, to insure


against losses.


The last commercial paper facility of


the financial crisis was closed in 2010.


The Fed established the new facility


under section 13 (3) of the Federal


Reserve Act, meaning it is acting with


the approval of Steven Mnuchin, the US


Treasury secretary.


“The economic disruption and uncer-


tainty created by Covid-19 has created


challenges for the commercial paper


market, constraining access to short-


term credit for American businesses,”


Mr Mnuchin said in a statement.


“By providing short-term credit, the


[facility] will help American businesses


manage their finances through this


challenging period.”


M I C H A E L P E E L A N D SA M F L E M I N G
BRUSSELS

Russian pro-Kremlin media have


mounted a “significantdisinformation


campaign” to aggravate thecoronavi-


ruspandemic crisis in western coun-


tries by destroying confidence in the


emergency response,says an internal


EU report.


The effort aims to stoke “confusion,


panic, and fear” and stop people obtain-


ing good information about the conta-


gion, as part of a broader strategy to


“subvert European societies from


within”, the European diplomatic serv-


ice analysis said.


The nine-page report — dated March


16 and seen by the Financial Times —


outlines a wide range of attempts inter-


nationally to exploit thepandemic by


spreading implausible narratives. It said


the effectiveness of vetting put in place


by social media companies for coronavi-


rus content was still unclear.


“A significant disinformation cam-


paign by Russian state media and pro-


Kremlin outlets regarding Covid-19 is


ongoing,” saidanalysis from the Euro-


pean External Action Service’s strategic


communications division. “The over-


arching aim of Kremlin disinformation


is to aggravate the public health crisis in


western countries, specifically by


undermining public trust in national


healthcare systems, thus preventing an


effective response to the outbreak.”


The EU had recorded almost 80 cases


in its database of Covid-19 related disin-


formation efforts since January 22, the


report said. It noted that “Russian state-


linked false personas and accounts” that


had previously posted on subjects


including Syria and the Frenchgilets


jaunesprotests switched to “pushing dis-


information about the coronavirus in


English, Spanish, Italian, German and


French online”.


Pro-Kremlin content sometimes pro-


motes the idea that coronavirus is “a


human creation, weaponised by the


west”, the report says. Messages target-


ing Italy aim to exacerbate fears over the


ability of national and international


authorities to manage the outbreak,


while messages in Spanish “advance


apocalyptic stories, blame capitalists for


trying to benefit from the virus, and


emphasise how well Russia and [Presi-


dent Vladimir] Putin are dealing with


the outbreak”.


RT Spanish — an outlet of theRussian


state-backed news agency formerly


known as Russia Today — registered


more than 6.8m shareson Facebook,


Twitter and Reddit for coronavirus con-


tent between January 1 and March 12,


the analysis said. That made it the 12th


most popular source among a basket of


domains surveyed, ahead of some big


western media outlets. RT has always


denied it spreads disinformation.


The pro-Kremlin pandemic strategy


was to “deploy dozens of different and


often contradictory narratives that are


disseminated through official channels,


as well as online and through social


media”, the European analysis argued.


“The campaign is designed to exacer-


bate confusion, panic, and fear, and to


prevent people from accessing reliable


information about the virus and public


safety provisions,” the EU document


said.


The European External Action Serv-


ice declined to comment.


Additional reporting by Henry Foy in


Moscow


Easing measures


Fed swoops to buy commercial paper


Bank acts as short-term


funding market for


companies is ‘frozen’


Leisure industry.Small and medium businesses


Café culture succumbs to social distancing


Closure of favourite meeting


places prompts calls for


immediate state response


Long wait: a


worker takes


tables and


chairs into


storage at


a Paris café


closed for lack


of customers
Cyril Marcilhacy/Bloomberg

Inside
See Opinion,
Martin Wolf;
Lex; Tail Risk;
Companies
and Markets

‘First, I had


the gilets


jaunes


demos, and


then the


strikes and


now this. I


expect the


next thing


will be an


earthquake’


CHRISTOPHE
CAFÉ OWNER

What


they say


‘It’s a


catastrophe.


We are


going to


completely


lose two


months’


RÉMY SILVA
HOTEL MANAGER

Fake news


EU report warns of Russian disinformation campaign


Headlines:


Ukrainians


wearing face


masks look at


the latest news


on a phone in


Kyiv yesterday


MAKE A SMART INVESTMENT


Subscribe to the FT today at FT.com/subscription


STOCK MARKETS World Markets
S&P 500Nasdaq CompositeMar 302365.935902.742361.135897.55prev0.20%chg0.
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CURRENCIES$ per €Mar 301.074prev1.
¥ per $¥ per ££ per €$ per £111.295139.0350.8591.249111.035137.8220.8661.
€ indexSFr per €89.0461.06989.3721.

€ per $£ per $Mar 300.9320.801prev0.9300.
£ index$ index¥ per €€ per £119.476104.6361.16476.705119.36376.951103.9301.
COMMODITIESOil WTI $Mar 3050.22SFr per £1.244prev49.51%chg1.2381.
Oil Brent $Gold $ 52.981248.801251.1052.540.84-0.

INTEREST RATESUS Gov 10 yr price98.87yield2.38chg0.
Jpn Gov 10 yrUS Gov 30 yrGer Gov 10 yrUK Gov 10 yr 100.46100.4598.68100.140.060.391.212.99-0.01-0.030.000.
Ger Gov 2 yrFed Funds E price102.580.66-0.750.66prevchg0.000.
US 3m BillsUK 3mEuro Libor 3m-0.360.780.340.34-0.360.780.000.000.
Prices are latest for editionData provided by Morningstar

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