The Economist UK - 16.11.2019

The EconomistNovember 16th 2019 Asia 49

1

O

n the daythat Kem Sokha was released

from 14 months of house arrest, he de-

cided to stay at home. The Cambodian op-

position leader did meet politely with for-

eign bigwigs who were at last free to call on

him, but declined to address waiting re-

porters. He was still barred from participat-

ing in politics, he explained, and did not

know what the courts might construe as a

political act. He still awaits trial on

trumped-up treason charges. The Cambo-

dia National Rescue Party (cnrp), which he

used to lead, remains banned. And despite

a court’s decision on November 10th to ease

other restrictions on him, he cannot leave

the country.

Ironically, the little breathing room Mr

Kem Sokha has been afforded is probably

thanks to the efforts of his predecessor as

leader of the cnrp, Sam Rainsy, to enter

Cambodia. In August the former finance

minister announced that he would return

to Cambodia on November 9th from self-

imposed exile in France. (He fled four years

ago after being convicted of defamation.)

Ahead of his arrival, the government ar-

rested more than 50 people aligned with

the opposition. Military reinforcements

were sent to the border with Thailand.

The army need not have worried. On

November 7th the Thai authorities an-

nounced that Mr Sam Rainsy would not be

allowed to enter the country, much less

cross it on his way to Cambodia. The same

day Mu Sochua, deputy leader of the cnrp,

was detained for hours upon arrival in Ma-

laysia. The Malaysian and Thai govern-

ments said cravenly that they did not want

to undermine relations with Cambodia.

Eventually the Malaysian authorities re-

lented, allowing Ms Mu Sochua and Mr

Sam Rainsy into the country. The whole

rigmarole afforded the opposition leaders

lots of attention in the media and remind-

ed the world of the ongoing subversion of

democracy by Hun Sen, Cambodia’s

strongman of 34 years.

The cnrpused to frighten Mr Hun Sen.

It won 45% of the vote in parliamentary

elections in 2013, despite a huge institu-

tional bias in favour of the ruling Cambodi-

an People’s Party (cpp). It seemed likely to

do even better in the following poll, in 2018.

So the government persuaded the courts to

ban the party before conducting a farcical

election in which the cppwon every seat.

Now the cnrppresents a different sort

of problem. Its members’ mistreatment ap-

pals Western governments, which spent

billions in the 1990s on aunmission to re-

store Cambodia to democracy. The Euro-

pean Union, long disgusted with Mr Hun

Sen’s repression, is considering whether or

not to impose tariffs on Cambodian ex-

ports, threatening the country’s successful

garment industry and its 700,000-odd

workers. “Economic security in Cambodia

is very fragile,” says Vannarith Chheang of

the Asian Vision Institute, a Cambodian

think-tank.

Last year theeubought about two-fifths

of Cambodia’s exports, worth some $6bn. It

is the country’s second-largest trading

partner, after China. On November 12th it

sent a confidential report to the Cambodi-

an government with the results of a nine-

month investigation into the country’s vio-

lations of human and workers’ rights. A fi-

nal decision on the tariffs is expected in

February. By improving the treatment of Mr

Kem Sokha and directing the courts to re-

lease another 70 political prisoners, as it

did on November 14th, the government

doubtless hopes both to improve its stand-

ing in European eyes and to distract atten-

tion from Mr Sam Rainsy’s grandstanding.

There is a possible ancillary benefit for

the Cambodian authorities: Mr Kem

Sokha’s release might revive a rivalry with

Mr Sam Rainsy. “Their dream is of a cage

fight,” reckons Sophal Ear of Occidental

College in America. At any rate, the govern-

ment suddenly sounds quite complimen-

tary about the man it is trying for treason.

“In terms of political courage and reputa-

tion, he has scored much higher than the

populist and cowardly Sam Rainsy,” de-

clared a recent editorial in theKhmer Times,

a mouthpiece for the regime. 7

SINGAPORE

Hun Sen eases up on one dissident to

distract attention from another

Cambodian politics

The opposition

twitches

E

ven for acountry accustomed to bush-

fires, the scenes look apocalyptic.

Swathes of eastern Australia have burned.

As The Economistwent to press, more than

129 fires were raging in the states of New

South Wales and Queensland. Together

they have swallowed more than 2.5m acres

(1m hectares), producing smoke so thick

that it can be seen from space. At least 200

homes have been incinerated and four peo-

ple killed in the inferno.

Never before have bushfires struck Aus-

tralia on such a scale. Many people have

been surprised by their ferocity. The blazes

have reached the outer suburbs of Sydney, a

city of over 5m people (the police are inves-

tigating whether some of the fires that

threatened it were lit on purpose). They

were also edging towards Noosa, a popular

beach resort in Queensland, where resi-

dents were evacuated. “We are used to

floods, not flames,” says Denise Knight, the

mayor of Coffs Harbour, a city on the north-

ern coast of New South Wales, close to one

of the biggest blazes.

Bringing such fast-moving fires under

control is difficult and dangerous. Fire-

fighters have flown in from other parts of

Australia and from New Zealand to help

battle the conflagration. The armed forces

have deployed helicopters. Schools have

been closed, as evacuation centres fill up.

Houses are being doused in a pink potion

that slows the advance of flames. But fire-

fighters fear the worst is not over.

The kindling was laid by the drought

that has been ravaging eastern Australia for

two years. It has killed trees and dried turf

which would normally be too damp to

burn, creating what Martin Rice of the Cli-

mate Council, an ngo, calls “tinderbox

conditions”. The fires have been fanned by

strong winds and scorching temperatures.

In New South Wales, 300 new blazes start-

ed on November 12th alone—“and it isn’t

even summer yet”, observes Matt Sun of the

state’s Rural Fire Service.

Such horrors are looking ever less like

an anomaly, however, and more like the

rule. Fire seasons, once confined to the hot

summer, are growing longer—something

many scientists ascribe to climate change.

Average temperatures in Australia have ris-

en by over 1°C since 1910. Heatwaves are in-

creasingly common and winter rains are

becoming less heavy. This is a recipe for in-

SYDNEY

Unprecedented bushfires stoke a

debate about climate change

Bushfires in Australia

Spring flames

Not so merry