Sources: Vivid Seats; US Census Bureau; MIT Elections and Data Science Lab;The Economist↓In the Northeast and Midwest,
areas whose voters swung towards
Donald Trump in 2016 stand out
for liking hard-edgedrockmusicAfrican-American
counties in the South
have a particular
affinity forhip-hopLatinmusic is prevalent in Hispanic
areas along the Mexican border and
in South Florida↓Rural mountain and plains statesgravitate towards
country and folk, as does much of the SouthMusical preferences mirror America’s demographic and political dividesMost popular genre relative to national average, by county, share of live music tickets sold, 2019, %
Country/folk Hip-hop/rap/R&B Rock/alternative Pop Latin Dance/electronicaPopulation,2017, m
7.0
1.0AngelesLos
AngelesChicago The Bronx,
New YorkMiamiHoustonChicagoHoustonLos
AngelesThe EconomistNovember 16th 2019 81O
ne reasonAmerica has become so po-
larised is that its two big parties are in-
creasingly seen to represent tribes as well
as policies. One study by Lilliana Mason of
the University of Maryland found that
whether people said they were “liberal”
was a better predictor of reluctance to mar-
ry a “conservative”—and vice versa—than
actual views on political issues were. An-
other paper, by Douglas Ahler of Florida
State University and Gaurav Sood, found
that Americans wildly exaggerate the share
of each party’s voters made up by certain
groups. On average, poll respondents
guessed that 32% of Democrats were gay
and that 38% of Republicans earned over
$250,000. The real figures were 6% and 2%.
Ample evidence shows that the two
sides differ on more than just taxes and
guns. One viral quiz in 2014 predicted party
loyalty using quirky data: Republicanswere more likely than Democrats to prefer
dogs to cats, neat desks to messy ones, ac-
tion films to documentaries and Internet
Explorer to Google Chrome. Using data on
concert tickets from Vivid Seats, an online
market, we find that tastes in live music
also mirror America’s political divide.
Regional variation in musical prefer-
ences is tied to demography. Hip-hop, a
genre invented by urban blacks, is most
popular in cities and in African-American
areas. Sales for Latin styles like merengue
are high in Hispanic counties in Florida
and near the Mexican border. Country andfolk, full of odes to wide-open spaces, pre-
vail in plains and mountain states. Yet
playlists also provide extra information
about political beliefs, beyond their ability
to stand in for race and population density.
The musical style that best predicts lib-
eralism is hip-hop; for conservatism, it is
country. In 2016 Donald Trump’s vote share
in places where country out-sold hip-hop
was 22 percentage points higher than in
those where hip-hop was more popular.
When combined into a statistical model,
race, age, education and urbanisation ac-
count for only an 18-point gap. The remain-
ing four points consist of factors reflected
in music but not by demography.
It stands to reason that rural whites who
like rap, a genre in which artists have railed
against police brutality, are unusually left-
wing. The politics of hard-rock acts like
Metallica, ac/dcand Guns’n’Roses—who
are particularly popular in places that vot-
ed for Barack Obama in 2012 but Mr Trump
in 2016—are less clear. Politically active
rockers tend to lean left. However, the best-
selling rock groups are older than most pop
stars or rappers, suiting many Trump vot-
ers’ nostalgia. And among Mr Trump’s
often rowdy fans, their belligerent, anti-
establishment music may strike a chord. 7The ballad of the Obama-Trump voter
is likely to feature screeching guitarsPlaylists and
politics
Graphic detailAmerican music
Clinton+60+30+30Trump+60Margin, percentage points100 75 / 25 50 / 50 25 / 75 100Musical genre preference and vote share in 2016
Relative to expectation based
on demographyShare of ticket sales for hip-hop and country concerts, %Among counties with similar
mixes of race, age, schooling
and urbanisation, music still
predicted voting