turn around until a significant majority of people
decide that we’ve done enough (privately and
publicly) and have to move along. Hopefully,
that coincides with the success of public
health efforts.”
A strong economic rebound likely depends on
people and companies being able to preserve
their money, so that it can be spent and
invested once the gloom begins to subside. The
challenge now is that incomes are eroding, and
that could limit the recovery.
Not only have 16.8 million Americans —
roughly 1 in 10 workers — lost their jobs in
the past three weeks. Workers have seen their
hours slashed, have seen sales commissions
disappear and have accepted salary cuts, such
that incomes have declined for half of U.S.
working households, according to a survey from
The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public
Affairs Research.
Children can no longer attend school, reducing
the productivity of their parents. And on a
regional basis, many state economies may take
time to claw back what has been lost. Florida will
need to bring back roughly 130 million tourists
annually. The decisions of Texas employers will
likely depend on crude oil — now trading for
around a low $24 a barrel — climbing back
above $30 to a point at which drilling and
pumping is profitable.
Stanford University economist Nicholas Bloom
is an expert on uncertainty and believes
the economy will end this year 10% smaller
than it was at the start of 2020, a loss of
nearly $2 trillion even with the $2.2 trillion
rescue package.